Life expectancy reversal: State Pension age could be rising too fast
The State Pension age could be rising too quickly as life expectancy rates grind to a halt.
Analysis from pensions consultancy LCP suggests that life expectancy has stopped increasing. The rise in State Pension age, first from 65 to 67 and later to 68, may not be needed as a result.
The increase in State Pension age, cost aside, was predicated on rising life expectancies in the UK. But LCP’s analysis suggests life expectancy is now in fact decreasing, making the rise in age for State Pension unnecessary.
The Government had decided to increase the State Pension age on the basis that no one should spend more than a third of their life earning a retirement income from the State. It decided the State Pension age should rise to 68 by 2039.
The Government based its review of the State Pension age on average UK life expectancy. For example, as part of its analysis the Government predicted a woman aged 66 in 2014 could expect to live to age 89. But estimates from LCP suggest that women can now only expect to live to 87.
As a result, the increase in the State Pension age from 66 to 67, which is currently scheduled between 2026 and 2028 could be pushed back by 23 years – to 2049-51. Those born between 1961 and 1984 would enjoy much earlier receipt of their State Pension.
But the sheer cost of reversing the age rise could be too much for the Government to bear. Before the secondary impacts of taxation, reversing the State Pension age increases could cost the Treasury some £195 billion, with more than 20 million people potentially affected by the changes.
Commenting, Steve Webb, partner at LCP said: “The Government’s plans for rapid increases in state pension age have been blown out of the water by this new analysis.
“Even before the pandemic hit, the improvements in life expectancy which we had seen over the last century had almost ground to a halt.
“But the schedule for state pension age increases has not caught up with this new world. This analysis shows that current plans to increase the state pension age to 67 by 2028 need to be revisited as a matter of urgency.
“Pension ages for men and women reached 66 only last year, and there is now no case for yet another increase so soon.”
If you’d like to know more about what a change to the State Pension age could mean for you, then get in touch with your financial adviser.
The World In A Week - Taper Tantrum Two?
Written by Cormac Nevin.
After an exceptionally strong 2021, markets started the New Year on a weaker footing. Equities as measured by the MSCI All Country World Index were down -1.7% in GBP terms. Fixed Income also provided little solace as rising interest rates left global treasuries down -1.0% for the week and riskier high yield bonds were also down -0.7%. The Equity sell-off was concentrated in the US growth/tech space, as the NASDAQ index of tech superstars fell -4.6% and the broader S&P 500 Index was down by -2.1%. One bright spot for the global equity landscape was our very own UK Equity market, where a high concentration of Financial and Energy stocks allowed the FTSE All Share Index to rally +1.0% as markets around the world fell. This gives some pleasing momentum to what has been one of the most unloved equity markets of the last five years.
The principal cause of this pullback in markets was the release of the minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s December meeting that illustrated the increased concerns of the Board members pertaining to the rate of inflation being experienced by the US economy. The members also concluded that economic growth was likely to be robust in 2022. This was interpreted by markets as a green light for the Fed to end the stimulus programme, which it has had in place since the start of the pandemic, earlier than previously anticipated. This view was further spurred on by the release of jobs data in the US on Wednesday that showed the unemployment rate drop to just 3.9%, despite new job creation coming in at only 50% of what was anticipated. This indicated to markets that we may be even closer to the Fed’s goal of “full employment” which gives them further scope to reduce stimulus. Markets eagerly await the latest US inflation data due on Wednesday of this week.
Other geopolitical events also paint a vista of potentially choppy waters as we enter 2022. Revolution in Kazakhstan, great power games in the Ukraine, and the possibility of the Omicron variant disrupting supply chains in the Far East all pose potential upside risks to inflation. We think our portfolios are well equipped to handle what 2022 might bring, and our focus on great companies trading on sensible valuations combined with unique diversifiers remains unchanged.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 10th January 2022.
© 2022 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - Concentrate on the Concentration
Written by Millan Chauhan.
Over the last week, Apple’s market cap has exceeded $3 trillion, the first company to do so in history. In October 2021, Microsoft overtook Apple as the world’s most valuable company before Apple retook the crown following a sharp rally in November 2021. Apple kicked off the first trading day of 2022 with a strong start and briefly eclipsed the elusive $3 trillion market cap threshold. Over the last five years, we have seen the technology manufacturer majorly diversify their product line from the initial personal home computer to the iPod, iPad and iPhone and now, most recently, to the AirPods. Apple’s track record of developing cutting-edge innovative products has underpinned the growth of the Company and they continue to diversify their product range with potential launches of virtual reality devices and an electric car.
However, as such big technology names have grown so rapidly so has their weighting at a benchmark level with Apple being the top weight in the S&P 500 at 6.9% and 11.6% in the technology-heavy NASDAQ. The concentration of the top weights has narrowed tremendously as the mega-cap technology names including Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Apple have outpaced a large proportion of the remaining index and now constitute roughly 22% of the S&P 500 Index. This has become a difficult risk to navigate for active US Growth fund managers as they are almost forced into holding these mega-cap technology stocks since they constitute such a large proportion of their index and not holding the stocks could impact their relative performance.
Elsewhere, cases of the latest strain of the virus Omicron continue to rise with 1.2 million people in the UK testing positive in the last seven days. The number of days needed to isolate was reduced from ten to seven, and now UK businesses have encouraged this to be reduced further as symptoms of the new strain are deemed less severe and would help support the labour shortages the country is facing. The current US health advice is to self-isolate for five days after receiving a positive test which may be several days after the first symptoms.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 4th January 2022.
© 2022 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
Women must save £185,000 more during their careers to match men’s retirement income
Women have to save up to £185,000 more than men during their careers to match what men will earn in retirement, according to research from Scottish Widows.
The £185,000 figure can be broken down into £100,000 extra to bridge the savings gap, £50,000 to cover women’s’ longer life expectancy and £35,000 to pay for the extra care needs that this entails.
Scottish Widows has published its annual Women and Retirement report since 2006, looking at the differences between the sexes when it comes to retirement outcomes. In its latest report it has found women in their 20s today will save around £250,000 on average by the time they retire, while men will typically save £350,000.
Life expectancy for men and women also differs. A man aged 25 today is expected to live to age 86 on average, while a woman can expect to live to 89. It would take a £400,000 pot for the woman to match retirement incomes thanks to this longer life expectancy.
What is causing the discrepancy?
Looking at why there is a gender gap when it comes to retirement outcomes is not down to one simple thing.
Women can expect to earn around 40% less than men during their working years according to recent research from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS). While this gap has decreased by around 25% in the past 25 years, it is difficult to close as typically, women fall behind in income terms when they take time out of the workforce to have children. The majority of gains according to the IFS are down to improvement in education among women in the past quarter decade.
As a result of these lower income expectations, savings and retirement outcomes are also negatively affected, causing the aforementioned savings gap. This is compounded by the fact that women tend to live longer too.
What can be done about it?
It is a difficult issue to resolve, especially as the only way to really avoid the shortfall is to not take time out from work. And with societal changes that reflect the discrepancy unlikely to be forthcoming any time soon, women need to take matters into their own hands.
In the situation where female workers are taking maternity leave or even breaks from careers, they should consider trying to contribute to a pension while off work or get a partner to contribute on their behalf. Anyone not working can still put in up to £2,880 each year. If someone is on paid maternity leave, ensuring they continue to pay in to a workplace pension is essential too.
Other potential measures to consider include increasing workplace pension contributions, deferring State Pension payments as long as possible and getting started with saving at as early an age as feasible.
Other than that, the best solution for women’s wealth is to have it working as hard as possible. This means making sure wealth is kept in a savings vehicle which will enable it to grow over time and ensuring any investment portfolios are structured for the best long-term outcomes.
Retirement planning: the key to being well-prepared for your golden years
Planning for your own retirement is a tricky topic. There are many variables to consider, and each individual has a specific set of circumstances and goals to achieve.
But there are a few key areas of planning for your golden years that can help you to have clear in your mind what needs to be done, and how you can aim to achieve your ambitions.
Here are four key areas to consider.
- Time horizon
Thinking about when you would like to retire is perhaps the most fundamental consideration when planning for retirement. Essentially, every decision you make depends on when you actually plan to stop working.
There are a lot of variables to it as well. Retirement is not the straightforward end day and handshake it once was. Evermore frequently people decide to go on what is called a ‘glide path’ to retirement, reducing hours or days in the office until eventually stopping completely.
You’ll need to consider your age now, and how old you’ll want to be when you retire. The younger you are and the further away your retirement date, the more time you’ll have to save and invest to grow that wealth.
If you’re happy working until an older age other considerations such as State Pension entitlement become relevant, as you’ll likely have access to it from age 67 (or later depending on your current age).
- Risk appetite
Once you have set your goals for retirement age – or glidepath to retirement – you’ll want to consider how you’ll get there. There’s a good chance you’re already building wealth through a variety of resources such as property, pensions and ISAs.
Depending on your time horizon you will need to accept certain levels of risk within your portfolio in order to reach those goals.
While being able to save set amounts is key, the compounding effect of growth and regular contributions will have the biggest impact on how your retirement funds grow. Ultimately it is ok to be more conservative with your tolerance for risk, but that may have an impact on the point at which your wealth reaches a size at which you feel comfortable enough to retire.
- Spending needs
You also need to estimate how much you’re likely to spend in retirement. Again this is very subjective, as each individual has a different idea of what their golden years will look like. For some it looks like world cruises, nice cars or even moving to somewhere sunnier. For others it is staying at home, helping with the grandkids and pottering in the garden.
Either choice – or anything in between – is totally fine. But both carry very different kinds of cost implications.
On top of that, age and longevity is something important to consider. Although not a hard and fast rule, retirement spending is often ‘U’ shaped, if plotted on a graph. At the beginning of retirement people tend to enjoy some of the good things, going on trips or spending some pension cash on home improvements.
Then as time goes on many settle into a rhythm that is generally lower cost (the bottom of the U). Finally, as people enter advanced ages costs such as help around the home (gardeners, cleaners etc) and even care costs, start to mount up.
All this is to say it is hard to establish what an ‘average’ income should look like for any individual. With these different costs in mind it is important then to think realistically about what you’ll need, and how long you’ll be able to sustain it for.
Our financial advisers can help you create a financial life plan ’, which can be a great way to properly visualise how this might work.
- Estate and tax planning
Finally, a really important consideration is how all of this is structured. As mentioned before we’re given access to a variety of wealth building tools such as pensions, ISAs or property.
In the first instance it is essential to plan how much of your money goes where to make it as tax efficient as possible. Then you’ll need to think about the tax implications of this wealth once you’re gone – and how to make that process as tax efficient and simple for your loved ones as possible.
With the inherent complexity of these issues though, it pays to have the help of a qualified financial adviser to plan for the best outcomes possible.
Treasury drops Capital Gains Tax and Inheritance Tax reform plans – here’s what you need to know
The government has ditched plans to reform and possibly hike Capital Gains Tax (CGT) and Inheritance Tax (IHT), in a move that would have likely hit wealthier households.
In its update on the function of the Office of Tax Simplification (OTS), published at the end of November, the Treasury appears to have quietly scrapped mooted changes to both CGT and IHT.
The OTS initially proposed changes to IHT that would have seen the tax radically simplified. Currently, the system for taxing inheritance relies on a series of exceptions, allowances and other rules that make it difficult for families to negotiate.
It has also been criticised for the increasing number of families liable to the duty every year since its creation. Of CGT, the OTS suggested aligning the allowances with income tax, making it less attractive a way for many to take earnings.
Current rates of 10% for basic rate and 20% for higher and additional rates would have been moved to align with 20%, 40% and 45% rates of income tax respectively. The first £12,300 of capital gains earnings each year is currently tax-free.
Instead, the government accepted some minor changes to CGT rules, including the amount of time divorcing couples are allowed to transfer assets between each other before becoming liable for CGT.
Married couples and civil partners are able to transfer assets between each other without incurring any CGT liability. But for divorced couples this perk expires at the end of the tax year in which they divorce. This time limit is set to be extended.
What now for CGT and IHT?
The decision by the Treasury suggests the reform of CGT and IHT is dead in the water – for now at least. But that is not to say that the taxes might not come in line for reform in the future.
In the Treasury’s response to the OTS, financial secretary to the Treasury Lucy Frazer wrote: “These reforms would involve a number of wider policy trade-offs and so careful thought must be given to the impact that they would have on taxpayers, as well as any additional administrative burden on HMRC.
“The government will continue to keep the tax system under constant review to ensure it is simple and efficient. Your report is a valuable contribution to that process.”
Indeed, according to an article in The Times newspaper, Rishi Sunak is planning to make sweeping changes to taxes ahead of the next General Election.
According to the report, part of his plans include increasing the threshold for IHT. This would have the impact of making many less families liable to the tax and would likely be a popular measure among Conservative voters.
The new social care cap: how does it work, and how much will I pay?
After years not addressing the issue, the government has finally moved to implement new rules for the funding of social care.
While the government faced a significant rebellion from its own MPs, the measures passed Parliament on 23 November, making them all but inevitable. The new rules will see a cap of £86,000 for anyone in England to pay for care in their lifetime. This means that no one will ever have to pay more than £86,000 towards the cost of their own care.
The upper capital limit – which determines eligibility for care support – will also rise. It is currently set at £23,250 but will increase to £100,000 under the government’s plans. This means anyone with personal wealth and assets worth less than £100,000 will be eligible to receive additional financial support and will never pay more than 20% of these assets per year.
Anyone who has more than £100,000 in assets will receive no financial support from their local council.
The lower capital limit – which is the threshold below which people will not have to pay anything – will increase from £14,250 to £20,000. However, if someone is earning an income of some sort, such as from a pension or other investments, they may have to draw upon this to pay some costs.
The new rules will be enforced from October 2023, so for now the existing system remains in place and any contributions made before then won’t count towards the cap. In terms of what is covered under ‘care costs’ – it is anything relating to the everyday needs of someone who is unable to perform basic tasks for themselves, such as cooking, washing and dressing. It does not include day to day living costs such as buying food or bills. In the case that someone is no longer able to live independently and has to move to a care home, this would be covered by the new caps and allowances.
There are some further complexities to the new rules too. Only savings and income contributions towards care costs count towards the £86,000 cap. Any contributions from the local council or other financial assistance won’t.
The plans also don’t protect people from having to sell their house to pay for care. However, anyone who faces this situation can apply to delay the sale of their home until their death – when the bill for the care would come due and leave family members to settle the estate.
The World In A Week – Inflation – we’re bubbling hot, hot, hot!
Written by Richard Warne.
For those of you as old as me, you may well remember Pato Banton releasing a song called “bubbling hot” back in 1992, and this is how inflation is acting right now. On Friday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came out at a whopping 6.8% year-on-year increase, inflation is at a 40-year high, and both outcomes probably put to bed the notion that inflation is merely transitory.
As the end of 2021 fast approaches, there are many varying factors that markets are getting to grips with. It has only been a few weeks since the discovery of Omicron, the new COVID-19 variant, and this has naturally caught investors’ attention. At the same time there has been huge attention on the Fed’s taper/rate hike plans. However, against these concerns, it must not be forgotten that markets are performing strongly, anchored by robust consumer strength and continued upside of earnings revisions going into Q4 and next year.
Equity markets have been volatile over the last few weeks, and last week saw volatility swing to the upside with most regions posting returns of at least +2.0%, the MSCI All Country World Index was +3.0%, while the UK market delivered +2.2%. Last week’s recovery not only reflected these strong fundamentals but further indicated that investors may be growing increasingly comfortable with an accelerated taper/rate hike timeline to contain what has been some “hot” inflation prints.
Though last week’s US CPI print of 6.8% was eye-watering, it was perfectly in-line with expectations. So, did investors give a sigh of relief that the number printed was not way beyond expectations? However, the inflationary environment is a new reality, as is the ever-increasing spread of the Omicron variant of the virus, so could this have further impact on supply chain challenges? This is a topic that has had much airtime over prior months. Costco in the US reported Q3 earnings last week and comfortably beat market expectations. The Company did comment that 79% of its import containers had been delayed by 51 days on average.
Earnings, valuations, inflation, Fed policy responses, and the continuation of the virus are just a few of the topics the market continues to grapple with as we see out the year and will possibly have an impact on how investors think about positioning for next year.
As this is the last ‘World In A Week’ for 2021, may we wish you all a fantastic Christmas and a Happy New Year. We will return on 4th January 2022.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 13th December 2021.
© 2021 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - Data, data everywhere, but what should we think?
Written by Shane Balkham.
“A turn in sentiment has seen whip-sawing changes in markets and is creating a volatile environment for the end of the year.”
The Rime of the Ancient Mariner seems rather apt at this particular juncture. While the albatross heralded stormy conditions to sailors, data is signalling similar volatile conditions for the coming weeks.
The US employment for November showed that 210,000 jobs were added last month, significantly fewer than the expected 550,000. However, overall unemployment fell to its lowest level since the pandemic began. This was greeted with a sharp drop in US equities, as investors retreated from large technology companies, as evidenced by the fall in the Nasdaq index.
Employment data is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, so when Chair Jerome Powell gave testimony to Congress last week, in which he signalled his support for an acceleration in the wind-down of their quantitative easing programme, markets concluded that coupled with the jobs data, faster policy tightening was assured. The narrative should be about an economy getting stronger where extreme emergency policy is no longer needed or appropriate. This suggests an environment where we can expect interest rates to rise and tapering to be complete sooner rather than later.
We have the meetings of both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England next week, where expectations are high for the rhetoric to confirm this story. The Federal Reserve will also publish their updated ‘dot plots’ giving us an indication of where they expect short-term interest rates to be over the coming months.
Before the meeting of minds across both sides of the Atlantic, we have the US inflation reading on Friday where the top end of forecasts has a reading in excess of 7%. This should provide weight to the Federal’s decision, especially now the word ‘transitory’ has been retired from their lexicon. The twist in the tale though is we have the new variant of COVID-19 to concern us. Data surrounding Omicron’s virility and potency has yet to be confirmed, although the latest news suggests that this variant could be milder than Delta.
The move towards normalisation was always likely to be treacherous and fraught with the risk of policy missteps. Celebrations during Thanksgiving might have been premature as there are stormy seas to navigate before the next holiday. With inflation data for the US due this week, and the heavy weight policy makers meeting next week, it pays to be prudent and have an appropriately diversified portfolio.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 6th December 2021.
© 2021 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - Are we in for a wild ride?
Written by Richard Warne.
It was a real mixed bag last week in terms of returns within the equity markets with the MSCI All Country World Index down -0.6%, and the S&P 500 in the US down -1.1% in Sterling terms. It was really pleasing that it was not a sea of red across the board, with MSCI Emerging Markets +1.7% and the FTSE All Share Index +0.2% in Sterling terms, while the worst performing region was MSCI Europe Ex-UK with the region down -1.4%. This worked fantastically in terms of our tactical equity positioning, as we are overweight in Emerging Markets and the UK and underweight in the US & Europe ex UK.
Looking back over the last week there has been a barrage of headlines in the media in regard to food price inflation “Italian’s face pasta price increase of almost 40%”, then “Empty shelves”, “Off the menu”, “Flight curbs”, “Raising cane”, “Winter winner”, “Soaring butter”, “Getting hit” & “Peak fertiliser” are just a few to catch our attention. So, we have shortages of fried chicken in Japan, dairy prices spiking in the US, swine flu killing the pork market in parts of Europe, supply chain chaos in India impacting sugar cane prices, flight curbs in Hong Kong disrupting importation of goods. Higher fertiliser prices, difficulty recruiting labour, rising transportation costs and materially higher energy costs. We have talked about inflation in previous issues, and it certainly appears to be perforating through many areas – one suspects it will remain high on the agenda as we move through 2022. The jury is out on if we are getting close to “peak” inflation, with markets pricing in four possible rate hikes for 2022, and a balance sheet runoff that highlights just how different these tighter financial conditions are compared to just a few months ago.
Markets have had a wild start to the year. The news flow, volatility and macro events have come thick and fast, sending rates higher as the US 10 year Treasury yield ended the week at 1.78%, and the Nasdaq 100 was down for a third straight week. If this start is anything to go by, it’s fair to say this could be a challenging year. Valuations, fundamentals, the ongoing pandemic, tightening Fed cycle and increased political tensions are the backdrop for investors to navigate. This all sounds bearish, and we all should be acutely aware of the risks, but if markets don’t necessarily grind higher as they did through last year, then it could be an environment where positioning and stock picking can add real value to portfolios.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 17th January 2022.
© 2022 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.