The World In A Week - First mover advantage
Written by Millan Chauhan.
The latest figures released by the Commerce Department Bureau of Economic Analysis in the U.S. revealed that the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index figure increased by 2.4% in the 12 months to January 2024, in line with expectations. The core PCE price index (which excludes food and energy) rose 2.8% in the 12 months to January 2024. If you remember in mid-February, it was announced that US inflation figures for the 12 months to January came in at 3.1% which was above expectations of 2.9%. The U.S. market responded positively to the latest PCE price index figures and the fact they were in line with expectations, as the S&P 500 returned +1.4% last week in GBP terms. The Federal Reserve are set to meet on the 19th-20th March where it will decide the trajectory of U.S. interest rates. We are set to receive one further U.S. inflation print on March 12th, ahead of this much anticipated meeting.
Elsewhere, in Europe, the inflation rate declined to 2.6% in the 12 months to February 2024, slowing from 2.8% in the previous month, however this was still above expectations as inflation is proving to be stickier than initially expected. Energy prices declined 3.7% over the month but food, alcohol and tobacco inflation remain high at 4% and services inflation still remains at 3.9%. Core inflation in Europe was announced at 3.1% with expectations at 2.9% and is a critical measure used by the European Central Bank who are set to meet this Thursday where expectations are that interest rates will be held at 4.5%.
In the UK, house prices increased for the first time since January 2023 according to Nationwide’s House Price Index which rose 1.2% in the 12 months to February 2024 as borrowing costs declined.
There has been much speculation as to what the UK Budget has in store for us with talks of cuts to personal taxes and national insurance. The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt is set to unveil his list of measures on Wednesday.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 4th March 2024.
© 2024 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
HMRC in clampdown on ‘side hustle’ tax dodgers
Brits selling second-hand goods or letting out their property online are being targeted by the taxman as part of a clampdown on those not declaring second incomes.
Under the new measures, online marketplaces such as eBay, Amazon, Etsy, Depop and Vinted will be required to report how much money their users are making and report it to the UK’s tax authority.
The new measures are an attempt to weed out those who are making taxable income on a so-called ‘side hustle’ that they have not declared.
An HMRC spokesperson said: “These new rules will support our work to help online sellers get their tax right first time. They will also help us detect any deliberate non-compliance, ensuring a level playing field for all taxpayers.”
Who is affected?
The crackdown is aimed at those who make a second income of more than £1,000 a year online, such as selling secondhand clothes on sites such as Depop and Vinted, letting out their property on Airbnb or delivering takeaway food for the likes of Deliveroo.
Once sellers pass the £1,000 threshold, they may have to register for self-assessment and pay tax on their earnings.
Does that mean I will have to pay tax on things I sell online?
Not necessarily. It all hinges around whether you are deemed to be a ‘trader’ or not, according to the Low Incomes Tax Reforms Group (LITRG).
For example, if you’re selling unwanted personal items such as old children’s clothes or toys online as a one-off, then you are unlikely to be deemed to be ‘trading’, LITRG says. These types of transactions are ‘generally not taxable’, even if you make a significant amount of money, it adds.
However, you may be liable for tax if this is deemed a regular activity and you’ve crossed the £1,000 threshold.
When does it come into effect?
The new rules came into effect on 1 January, although online marketplaces will not start reporting user data to HMRC until January 2025.
Why has this been introduced?
The market for second-hand goods, particularly fashion items, is booming. Websites such as Depop and Vinted have reported surging sales at a time when many fashion retailers have struggled.
A recent report by US marketplace ThredUP suggested the global market for second-hand apparel alone could more than double to $350bn (£276.3bn) by 2027.
Given that many of those who sell on these marketplaces are individuals and not businesses, it has led to concerns that many are not paying tax when they should.
Is this a new law?
Yes and no. There are technically no new tax obligations on individuals: if you made £1,000 or more selling goods online before now and were deemed to be ‘trading’, you likely already had to pay tax on it.
The major change announced this month is the requirement for online marketplaces such as eBay and Amazon to report their users’ data to HMRC routinely.
Do I need to do anything?
Victoria Todd, Head of LITRG, says: “The new rules have caused a great deal of confusion, but they simply mean that HMRC are receiving more information from online platforms than they were before. If you are following existing rules and declaring your income as required, then you don’t need to worry or do anything differently.”
However, if you are unclear whether you should be paying tax on income from goods you sell online, then it’s worth contacting HMRC as soon as possible.
Tax year end: Strategies to safeguard your finances
As the end of the current tax year draws near, we are about to enter the third year of the six-year freeze on income tax thresholds, a move that has significantly altered the fiscal landscape. The proportion of adults paying higher rates of income tax has risen from 3.5% in 1991-92 to an expected 14% by the 2027–28 fiscal year, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
For those recently finding themselves in the higher tax bracket, as well as for those who have been navigating this territory for some time, here are four key strategies to help manage your finances more effectively and reduce tax liabilities:
1. Maximise pension contributions: Contributing to your pension not only prepares you for a secure future, but also offers immediate tax benefits. For higher-rate taxpayers, there is £40 in government tax relief available for every £100 contributed. It’s important to remember that while pension withdrawals are taxable, up to 25% can be taken as a tax-free lump sum, offering a strategic advantage in tax planning and potentially placing you in a lower tax bracket upon retirement.
2. Utilise pension contributions to preserve Child Benefit: For earners exceeding £50,000, the High Income Child Benefit Charge applies, progressively reducing Child Benefit. By making pension contributions, you can lower your taxable income, potentially mitigating or completely avoiding this charge, thus preserving your Child Benefit.
3. Invest in tax-efficient savings: With forthcoming reductions in capital gains and dividend allowances, ISAs and pensions become even more attractive as tax shelters. These vehicles allow you to fully utilise your annual allowances and protect your gains from tax liabilities.
4. Leverage spousal allowances: Married couples enjoy the benefit of double the allowances for ISAs, capital gains, personal savings, and dividends. Transferring assets between spouses can maximise the use of these combined allowances, offering potential tax savings and enhancing your financial strategy.
Beyond these strategies, keeping abreast of changes in tax regulations is crucial. The tax environment is constantly evolving, highlighting the need for dynamic financial planning and expert consultation.
Seeking tailored advice?
We are committed to empowering you with the knowledge and resources necessary for informed financial decision-making. Whether it’s tax planning, pension contributions, or investment strategies, our team is here to provide personalised guidance suited to your unique financial situation.
Contact us
Whether you’re an existing client or new to our services, we’re equipped to support your tax year-end planning and set you up for the year ahead. Why not arrange a meeting with one of our advisers, providing an opportunity to see how our bespoke advice can meet your financial needs. Book your session today to begin shaping your financial future.
Important: When investing your capital is at risk. The value of pensions and investments may fall as well as rise. Tax treatment varies according to individual circumstances and is subject to change. Tax advice is not regulated by the FCA.
The World In A Week - Have we reached the summit?
Written by Shane Balkham.
UK inflation fell to below 5% in October, on the back of a sharp decline in energy costs. The monthly publication from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) showed a 2.1% drop in UK Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) from 6.7% for September to 4.6% for October.
A significant contributor to this fall was the fall in energy prices; over the year to the end of October, gas prices fell by 31% and electricity prices fell by 15.6%. Food prices were little changed for October.
This is a positive step bringing inflation back down to the Bank of England’s (BoE) target level of 2%. There are another three weeks until the Monetary Policy Committee of the BoE meets to discuss the path of UK interest rates, and it remains a delicate balancing act.
The US also had a pleasant surprise for inflation, with a fall greater than expected. US CPI for October fell from 3.7% to 3.2%, which was marginally below consensus expectations. The reaction of the US market was one of relief, with US Treasury yields falling and the stock market rallying.
Some commentators believed that this was an overreaction by investors and while inflation is certainly heading in the right direction, there will be challenges ahead. The US Federal Reserve meets a day earlier than the BoE, with the next decision on interest rate policy coming on 13th December.
It makes sense that the reaction from markets on October’s inflation readings was one of relief. However, central banks are known for not necessarily doing the right thing at the right time, and although there is optimism that we have reached the peak in the interest rate hiking cycle, we are still treading carefully in our investment decisions.
From policymakers to politics, where the US House of Representatives voted to avert a costly government shutdown last week. In a similar move to that of six weeks ago, the can has been kicked down the road until early in the new year. The proposal provides a two-step plan that sets up two new shutdown deadlines next year. US government funding has been divided into two different parts, with priority given to military construction, transportation, housing, and the Energy Department, which has a new deadline of 19th January 2024. Anything not covered in this first step would be funded until 2nd February 2024. Politics will certainly start the New Year in the spotlight and will likely remain there.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 20th November 2023.
© 2023 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - Summer Prints
Written by Millan Chauhan.
Last week, we saw the release of US inflation data where the US Consumer Price Index reached 3.2% on a year-over-year basis as of July 2023 which was below expectations of 3.3%. Inflation has fallen significantly from its highs of 9.1% in June 2022. Food was one of the largest contributors to July’s monthly inflation print of 0.2%. Food at Home costs rose 3.6% and Food Away from Home costs rose 7.1% on a year-over-year basis. Attention now turns towards the UK and Continental Europe where we await July’s inflation data readings on Wednesday and Friday respectively. In the UK, analysts expect to see inflation fall to 6.8% and in the Euro Area to 5.3%, both on a year-over-year basis for July 2023.
Over the last 15 months, we have seen central banks implement several interest rate hikes, which has caused commercial banks to raise the interest rate received on deposits by savers. Some banks have been slower to increase the interest rate received than others. Last week, the Italian Government stepped in to penalise banks for failing to pass enough of the interest hikes from the European Central Bank (ECB) to depositors, it initially stated that it would tax 40% of net interest margins in 2022 or 2023 which initially saw numerous Italian banks sell off sharply. The announcement was a shock to investors and was widely criticised. Subsequently the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni backtracked the decision and clarified that any levy applied would be capped to 0.1% of assets.
The UK’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.5% in June 2023 which was above expectations of 0.2%. The extra bank holiday has been cited as a key driver; however, we have also seen production output grow 1.8% in June 2023 which outpaced the Services & Construction sectors. June’s strong economic growth data saw the UK’s Q2 GDP grow by 0.2%.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 14th August 2023.
© 2023 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - Calm before the storm
Written by Chris Ayton.
Global equity markets trod water last week, with the MSCI All Country World Index ending the week down -0.2% in Sterling terms. MSCI Europe ex-UK fell -1.1%, with the FTSE All Share Index and the S&P 500 Index both dropping -0.4% but MSCI Emerging Markets was up +1.1% boosted by positive returns in China and Brazil. After years of neglect and disinterest, corporate governance improvements are leading international investors to revisit their allocations to Japanese equities and this helped MSCI Japan rise +1.5% for the week. However, the Japanese Yen remained weak ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting this week where, unlike all other major economies, it is expected to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy. The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) also meet this week.
Last week the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) released its latest GDP growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024, predicting the global economy would expand by 2.7% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024. Underlying that, it went on to predict the US will avoid recession, India will grow strongly (6% this year, 7% next year), and China will achieve its target of 5% GDP growth this year and next. However, it estimated the UK will only achieve 0.3% growth this year and 1% next year, although this is better than previous estimates. While this backdrop is certainly interesting, it is important to remember that economic growth does not equate to stock market returns.
In Europe, the EU’s statistics agency revised down the EU’s GDP growth to -0.1% for both the final quarter of 2022 and first quarter of 2023, meaning the Eurozone is technically already in a recession. This surprising news came on the back of Germany also announcing that it had fallen into recession. This data has brought into question the European Commission’s 1.1% growth forecast for 2023 and it will be interesting to see if the ECB starts to face any pressure to ease up on further interest rate rises at their upcoming meeting.
Data released by Halifax last week showed UK house prices registering their first annual decline since 2012, with average house prices in May sitting 1% below where they were this time last year. The Nationwide Building Society had earlier indicated an even greater annual decline. With Uswitch reporting the average 5-year fixed rate mortgage rate in the UK has now hit 5.59% and further interest rate rises expected going forward, this is clearly starting to impact price expectations for buyers and sellers.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 12th June 2023.
© 2023 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - The narrowing leadership in US stocks
Written by Ilaria Massei.
Last Friday, we saw US stocks hit a nine-month high thanks to encouraging talks on debt ceiling and tech sector gains. The NASDAQ 100 rose 4.5% last week in GBP terms, boosted by the rally experienced by AI related stocks. There have only been a handful of stocks in the mega-cap market range that have led this rally in tech stocks. These include the likes of Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and NVIDIA. Last Thursday, shares of the chipmaker NVIDIA jumped 24%, making the company the sixth most highly valued public company in the world. Shares rose after the company beat consensus first-quarter earnings expectations by a wide margin and raised its profit outlook.
This extraordinary performance resurfaced the topic of narrow leadership in the US stock market, whereby fewer and fewer US tech stocks contribute to the broad index level return. Another crucial topic last week was the debt ceiling talks where policymakers delivered some encouraging news, signalling that they were working on a deal to raise the debt ceiling before the June deadline to avoid an unprecedented default. Meanwhile, the core (less food and energy) personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, rose by 0.4% in April, a tick above expectations.
Elsewhere, data released last Thursday signalled that the German economy fell into a recession in the first quarter, due to persistent high price increases and a surge in borrowing costs. GDP shrank 0.3% in the three months through March, a downward revision from an early estimate of zero growth. However, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers’ view is that interest rates would need to rise further and stay high to curb inflation in the medium term, potentially deteriorating the economy further.
The MSCI Japan declined to -1.1% last week in GBP terms but encouraging data released last week saw Japanese manufacturing activity expanding for the first time in seven months in May. The services sector also reported robust growth, as the reopening of the country to tourism led to a record rise in business activity.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 30th May 2023.
© 2023 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - Buffett bets big in Japan
Written by Cormac Nevin.
Markets rallied last week as data releases such as strong housing statistics in the US allayed fears of an economic hard landing driven by the interest rate increases we have witnessed over the last year. The MSCI All Country World Index of global equities (MSCI ACWI) rallied +1.5% in GBP terms.
A market which the team has noticed getting an increasing degree of exposure from global investors recently has been the Japanese Equity market. In local terms, Japanese Equities are up +8.5% over the course of the second quarter to date, which has strongly outperformed MSCI ACWI over the same period (+1.9%). The GBP return has been reduced by a weakening in the Yen vs Sterling, therefore returning +3.6%, but it remains strongly ahead of other markets. We have been overweight to the Japanese Equity market since 2020 and find it interesting that many of the characteristics of the market which we find appealing are now being given more attention from other investors and the media. These include attractive valuations compared to, for example, the US Equity market, corporate governance reforms being driven by the Tokyo Stock Exchange and other forces including low inflation, accelerating GDP and wage data. While the Yen has proved a headwind for GBP-based investors for the year to date, we think it provides excellent diversification benefits and room for the Japanese currency to rally should the global economy deteriorate as many predict which would lead to a potential narrowing in US/Japanese interest rate differential.
Another interesting element has been the increased investment in the Japanese market from Warren Buffett. While we think investors should never slavishly follow any one investment luminary, we do think it is interesting that the Sage of Omaha now owns more stocks in Japan than in any other country besides the US via his Berkshire Hathaway holding company. Given Mr Buffett’s exceedingly long track record in finding high quality companies trading at discounted valuations, we believe that the Japanese Equity market could potentially be an excellent return driver into the future while other developed markets are more challenged from high valuations or macroeconomic turbulence.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 22nd May 2023
© 2023 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - Record breakers
Written by Chris Ayton.
As expected, the Bank of England (BoE) hiked interest rates by 0.25% to 4.5% last week, in the process warning that inflation will not fall as fast as expected over the next 12 months. This was a record twelfth rate rise in a row. The BoE also noted that it appreciated that only around a third of the impact from the previous rises had been felt by the UK economy, with 1.4 million people due to come off fixed rate mortgages this year, nearly 60% of which were fixed at interest rates below 2%. While this may bring hope to some that this was signalling a pause in further increases, the BoE warned that it continued to monitor indicators of persistent inflationary pressures and commented “If there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required.”
More positively, the Bank significantly upgraded its forecast for UK GDP Growth, expecting 0.25% growth this year followed by 0.75% in 2024 and 2025. This was the largest upwards revision to growth expectations on record and contrasts sharply with predictions late last year that the UK was heading for the longest recession in 50 years. This was followed by confirmation from the Office of National Statistics on Friday that the UK economy had grown 0.1% in the first quarter, the same as observed in the previous quarter.
News in the US was dominated by internal fighting over the extension of the debt ceiling. Having reached the maximum it is legally allowed to borrow, the U.S. government require an extension to that limit in very short order to be able to pay its upcoming debt obligations, to avoid a destabilising default, and prevent the financial chaos that would undoubtedly ensue. Previously, these challenges have been resolved at the twenty third hour but, in the meantime, this is likely to impact market sentiment.
Less well reported was the positive news that the top U.S. national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, met with China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, in Vienna in an attempt to calm relations between the two superpowers. Talks were said to be ’substantive and constructive’. The souring of relations, exacerbated by the Chinese spy balloon drama in February, has undoubtedly been a drag on China’s equity market performance in 2023.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 15th May 2023.
© 2023 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - No roses – just recessions and rising inflation
Written by Ashwin Gurung.
Last week, the official data showed that at the end of last year both the UK and Japan economies fell into a technical recession. This was an outcome neither of the nations anticipated, marked by two straight quarters of negative economic growth. The US economy was also taken aback by hotter-than-expected inflation numbers.
The UK economy contracted once again in Q4 2023 by -0.3%, more than the market consensus of -0.1%, following a contraction of -0.1% in Q3 2023. The officials reported that in Q4, all major parts of the economy declined, with manufacturing, construction, and services having the greatest negative effect on growth. This is the first time the UK entered a recession since COVID-19 plummeted the economy in 2020. Meanwhile, the inflation rate remained unchanged, with the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) holding steady at +5.1%, but below expectations, which renewed the hope that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut rates sooner. However, BoE Governor, Andrew Bailey, played down the GDP data before its release and said that the BoE is seeing signs of an “upturn” in the economy and the fall in the GDP looked “very shallow”. The Retail sales numbers released on Friday appear to have validated his statements, which rebounded +3.4% month-over-month, after a sharp fall of -3.3% in December.
Similarly, in Japan, the economy unexpectedly contracted -0.1% in Q4 of 2023, coming in below consensus of +0.3% growth, causing the economy to fall into recession for the first time in five years, as domestic demand declined. Consequently, Japan lost its position as the third-largest economy to Germany. While the weakening Yen coupled with a positive corporate earnings release supported the Japanese equity market last week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) now faces challenges in supporting the economic growth as well as the currency.
Meanwhile, in the US, the unexpected rise in inflation dampened investor sentiment and briefly drove the US market lower. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, rose +0.4% for the month, contributing to a year-on-year increase of +3.9%, well above the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) target of 2.0%. A significant factor driving this inflation was the rise in housing and rent prices over the past year, increasing by +6.0%. These items account for nearly one-third of the overall CPI basket. However, it is important to note that these factors are considered very lagging data points and does not represent the current conditions. Nonetheless, US stocks rebounded over the week.
This week, the investors will be looking forward to the Fed’s latest minutes on any new insights on the direction of the monetary policy. Additionally, an eagerly awaited earnings report from Nvidia is set to be released on Wednesday, which could have a potential impact on the market sentiment, given that much of the recent rally in the US equities has been fuelled by optimism surrounding Artificial Intelligence (AI).
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 19th February 2024.
© 2024 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.