The World In A Week - Lockdown Wind-down
The last week saw a broad risk-on sentiment emerge, with global Equities as measured by MSCI ACWI return +2.1% in GBP Terms. This was driven by Japanese and European Equities, while US Equities lagged driven partially by a weakening Dollar vs the Pound Sterling. Interestingly, “Value” equities strongly outperformed “Growth” equities by almost +2.0%. The Value segment of the market, which includes firms operating in the energy, financials and materials sectors, had been unloved by the market for some time – but has now potentially reached a point whereby they are so cheap relative to their Growth counterparts that there is room for significant upside.
It looks like the market is positioning for a scenario whereby economic growth picks up strongly following the pandemic lockdown, with an associated increase in inflation and a weakening of the ‘Almighty Dollar’ from historical highs. There is a reasonable basis for this positioning. Last week saw the continued advancement of a proposed €750bn recovery fund for the Eurozone, funded by mutually issued debt for the first time. This financial burden sharing would be one step towards resolving the structural flaws in the single currency.
Significant downside risks remain however, the principal one being that the economic recovery falls short of what the market is expecting or there is a significant second spike in coronavirus cases. To add to this, we face increased tension between China and the West over the latter’s designs on Hong Kong, as well as an upcoming US election amid rioting across American cities.
The World In A Week - Interim Update
News flow is beginning to contain something other than easing of lockdowns and vaccines.
Economies around the world are beginning to re-open, ahead of the schedules that were first announced back in the middle of March, and infection rates look to have largely been contained. The worst-case scenarios that made the headlines three months ago, now have a much lower probability of actually occurring.
Let us not forgot that any signs of market weakness have been met with additional support from central banks and governments. Japan’s announcement yesterday of an additional $1.1 trillion fiscal stimulus package continues that theory.
Whilst all of this is generally good news, the world’s media needs to find the next dramatic headline and as we wrote on Tuesday, the souring relations between the US and China are taking a more serious step. Last night, US Secretary of State, Pompeo, stated that the US could not consider Hong Kong as being autonomous from China, which does have significant consequences, as it may affect Hong Kong's special trading status with the US.
The political leverage that Donald Trump seeks to gain from managing the US/China relationship is becoming a key element in his re-election campaign. As we wrote last year, when the Phase 1 deal was penned, this New Cold War is not something that will dissipate anytime soon.
Finally, Brexit has once again hit the headlines. The EU have told Westminster that Brussels remains open to extending the transition period by up to two years. Talks on what the trade deal will look like remain unresolved, with the original target date of 30th June 2020 looking less likely to be met.
The World In A Week - Crunch Time
Tensions are running high. The balance between keeping economies locked down in order to protect the health services, and the desire to loosen lockdown measures in order to lessen the long-term impacts, is coming to a head.
Here in the UK, there has been tentative rhetoric that we are preparing to lift restrictions, but attention has shifted towards accusations that Boris Johnson’s senior aide broke lockdown rules. All nations will need unity to help with smoothing the economics of a bounce back, and Dominic Cummings’ actions will certainly be an unwelcome spanner in the planning.
In the US, we have already commented on the increasing pressures between itself and China, mainly at the finger of Trump’s Twitter account. Over the weekend, it was the turn of China’s foreign minister to ratchet up the tension, accusing the US of pushing relations to a New Cold War. All of this could mean short-term volatility in financial markets.
However, support for markets from both central banks and governments remains significant. Last week, France and Germany proposed a €500 billion Recovery Fund that would represent a significant step towards fiscal mutualisation in the Eurozone. What does this mean? The idea is that the distribution of the Fund’s resources will be based on need, while the burden of the repayment will be based on ability. This will treat the Eurozone as a whole, with the arguably stronger nations, such as France and Germany taking on greater burden, while less well-off nations, such as Italy and Spain, can benefit from the resources of the Fund.
We knew the route to combat COVID-19 would be uncertain and we appear to be at another inflection point. While the short term remains unclear for markets, the monetary and fiscal support appears to be the one constant.