State Pension set to rise by up to 11% - here’s what you need to know
The State Pension is set to rise by around 11% next year, as the Government has committed to the much-debated triple lock.
The State Pension triple lock guarantees that the benefit for retirees will rise by inflation, wage growth or 2.5% – whichever is higher at the time of the update. This is set to be decided by the data in September, with the rise implemented from the new tax year, 6 April 2023. This will affect around six million retirees in receipt of the benefit.
11% rise?
On the basis of those three inputs, the State Pension is likely to rise by up to 11%. This is not guaranteed, but what is forecasted by the latest inflation expectations from the Bank of England.
This has been known for some time, but the Government cancelled the triple lock last year. It did this because wage data at the time in 2021 was abnormally high.
But unlike inflation, which is high for particular economic reasons, the wage data was unusually high thanks to problems with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) information collection during the pandemic.
That wage data has now normalised, but inflation is at record levels. Despite this, the Government has now reaffirmed its commitment to the rule, leaving State Pension recipients in line for a bumper benefit increase.
The Government has come in for criticism over its decision to uplift the State Pension in line with inflation, particularly because workers aren’t receiving such generous pay increases, per ONS data, nor is it hiking other benefits such as Universal Credit by equivalent amounts.
Cash terms
Those who receive the full new State Pension currently receive £185.15 per week. If you defer taking the State Pension, this weekly payment can be larger once you do start claiming.
Those who reached State Pension age before 6 April 2016 will get a different amount which depends on the basic State Pension rules.
In cash terms for those who are eligible for the full new State Pension, an 11% uplift would be around £20.60 per week extra, or an extra £1,071.20 per year. This would take the State Pension payment over £10,000 for the first time ever to around £10,699 per year.
While this is a relatively small amount compared to other areas of wealth and income, it does form an often-essential part of many retirees income, especially in later years of life.
For those with ample income from wealth, or even those who are happy to continue working later in life, deferring the State Pension can be a really effective way to build up extra earnings for later in life.
Despite popular imagination, the State Pension isn’t accessed from a pot of money someone works towards over their adult life. Contributions are measured through National Insurance payments by qualifying year. The more of these you build, the more State Pension you’ll accrue for retirement, until you reach the ‘full’ amount.
If you spend any time out of the workforce, for reasons such as caring for a relative, or perhaps if you care for your children full time, it’s really important to claim National Insurance Credits (NICs) to ensure when you get to retirement age you have the full quantity you need.
If you’d like to discuss this, or anything else regarding your wealth journey, don’t hesitate to get in touch.
Nationwide now offering 5% interest– is cash back?
Nationwide has launched a new offer of 5% interest on current account cash.
The building society has ratcheted up its interest rate on the FlexDirect current account to entice more customers through its doors.
The increase takes interest on the current account from 2% to 5%. However, the rate is only available for up to £1,500 for 12 months. At the end of the 12 months the rate falls to 0.25% AER.
You’ll also have to pay in at least £1,000 a month. Anyone who doesn’t already have a current account with Nationwide can switch using the Current Account Switching Service (CASS) and will receive a £100 bonus for doing so.
This combined with the interest will earn you £200 over 12 months with the account.
Best place for cash?
The Nationwide account will only take care of a small amount of money for you and isn’t practical for anything like larger savings amounts.
That being said, with the Bank of England hiking interest rates, cash is becoming more attractive.
The top rate on an easy access cash ISA is with Marcus by Goldman Sachs offering 1.3%. This is however still lower than the 1.5% rate that Marcus offered when it first launched in 2018.
For a one-year fixed cash ISA you can get 1.6% from Aldermore, two years 2.45% from Charter Savings Bank, or for five years 2.6% from Hampshire Trust Bank.
These rates are moving up regularly with the base rate rising but are still well behind the current level of inflation, which stands at 9.1% on the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Is cash king yet?
With investment markets struggling this year it may be tempting to assign more wealth to cash, but ultimately this is still dooming money to devaluation, with such a big discrepancy between rates on offer and inflation levels.
The reality is that investments are still the best long-term method for growing wealth.
Cash is useful for an emergency fund. Holding some cash is also useful if you rely on wealth for your income, as having a pot of cash to draw upon in the short term is a good way of preventing the crystallisation of losses when markets are down.
But beyond this, cash really isn’t yet king. In fact, interest rate rises have a long way to run before cash savings become a viable method of storing long-term wealth again.
Note all rates quoted correct at the time of writing but subject to change.
RPI inflation change could cost pension schemes “billions”
Changes to the way that inflation is officially calculated could cost some pension holders “billions”, a challenge in the High Court has warned.
The challenge comes from representatives of the pension schemes of BT, Marks & Spencer and Ford UK and is attempting to block efforts by the Government to alter the way the Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation works.
What is RPI?
The Retail Prices Index – or RPI – is one of the oldest existing measures of inflation used by the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) and Office for National Statistics (ONS) to calculate price changes in the economy.
It is however widely seen as an inferior measure, having since been superseded firstly by the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) and now Consumer Prices Index including Housing costs (CPIH).
CPI is often the most quoted measure in the media when we see news stories about rising inflation and such. But CPIH is generally perceived by statisticians as the most accurate measure of prices and the impact on households as it includes housing costs which form a large part of many people’s budgets.
Despite this, RPI is still used by many organisations to calculate price changes. This includes everything from student loan interest payments to rail fares, mobile phone, and broadband contract prices.
Why is the Government changing RPI?
RPI is widely seen as an inaccurate measure, often overestimating the true level of price inflation in the economy.
The impact of current high inflation levels is being exacerbated by RPI inaccuracy. For instance, in June the Government announced it would be capping student loan interest rate rises, as the RPI measure was leaving students facing a 12% rate on their debts. Instead, it is capping the rate at 7.3% to protect graduate incomes from greater financial pressure.
Instead of simply abolishing it, which would be a complicated process with many organisations reliant on the index, the Government intends to change the way it is calculated to align it with CPIH.
This would have the effect of softening the impact of the measure while not getting rid of it entirely. The change is set to take effect by February 2030.
High Court challenge
Now however, this decision is being challenged through the courts by the above-mentioned pension schemes.
Those schemes argue that changing RPI to match CPIH will costs the schemes, and their members, billions in lower returns.
These schemes see their values uprated by the rate of RPI each year and could wipe out valuable rises for members. For the BT scheme, for instance, some 82,000 members will see around £2.8 billion in value wiped out by the change, costing each member around £34,000.
The case also argues that the holders of £90 billion-worth of Government RPI-linked gilts will lose out in rises as a result. Pension schemes would be affected as these RPI-linked gilts form a large proportion of their holdings. The Government says it doesn’t intend to offer any compensation to such gilt holders.
Overall, the case argues, RPI-linked pension holders will see 4-9% of their pension values wiped out by the change.
How could it affect me?
While it is uncommon for most pension schemes to have RPI-linked increases, it is still possible and worth checking. It is also worth ensuring that portfolio holdings aren’t overly exposed to RPI-linked assets such as gilts, although the readjustment in value for these will have largely already taken place.
If you’re unsure of whether your pension, or any other assets, might be affected by the changes, don’t hesitate to get in touch with us to discuss.
Annuity rates hit eight-year high - are they worth considering again?
Annuity rates have reached their highest level in eight years. But is it time to consider this former staple of retirement income again?
Inflation is reaching multi-decade highs at the moment, and looks set to stay higher for longer. The upward spike in price rises caught many central banks, including the Bank of England, off guard.
As a result, the bank is hiking its core interest rate to combat those price rises. The organisation is mandated by the Government to keep inflation levels at around 2% – and it is currently nowhere near achieving this, with inflation measured by the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) at around 9.1% according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
For this reason, the Bank of England is intent on hiking rates, which currently stand at 1.25% – the highest level since 2009. This is where the rise in annuity rates comes in.
What are annuities?
Annuities are a form of retirement income product. Before 2015 when pension freedoms were introduced, they were a much more common product to opt for at retirement than today.
But a decade of low rates, and changes in the rules for accessing pension cash effectively killed the market.
When you purchase an annuity, you exchange cash in your pension for a product that pays you a guaranteed income, generally for the rest of your life. You can get different types of annuities – including level annuities which pay the same amount every year, escalating annuities which rise at a fixed rate each year or inflation-linked annuities which rise (or fall) with inflation.
The length of an annuity also varies, with short, fixed term or lifetime annuities. Impaired annuities also exist, which pay out at a higher level if you have any pre-existing conditions such as obesity or diabetes, or if you are a smoker. Protection can also be built into an annuity in the form of spouse’s income, guarantee payment period or value protection. Each of these options will affect the rate of annuity you can achieve.
Depending on the product you pick, you exchange the cash in your pension for a regular income.
Why are annuity rates hitting new highs?
Providers of annuities will typically take your money and invest in low-risk assets such as bonds. As bond yields have risen this year thanks to adverse investment market conditions, so annuity rates have also moved upwards.
Annuity rates are also rising because the bank rate is rising. These rates move in the same way as cash savings, rising with interest rates. Annuity rates are increasing at the quickest pace in 30 years currently.
Is it time to buy?
Annuities are looking like a more attractive option, and could feasibly be considered as part of a wider portfolio of investments. It could be an especially attractive option if your long-term life expectancy is short thanks to medical conditions, lifestyle or age.
As is the case for all wealth solutions, it makes sense not to put all your eggs in one basket. Annuities can provide some income peace of mind, but are also not very flexible, unlike investments that produce an income from other assets such as bonds or equities.
Pension freedoms, when introduced, were very popular for a good reason – giving retirees much more choice over what happens to their lifetime of wealth growth.
Annuity rates will also change again over time – it’s impossible to say whether they will continue to climb, or will reverse as markets normalise and inflation peaks.
If you would like to discuss your options, or for any queries in general, don’t hesitate to get in touch with your financial adviser.
The World In A Week - The Three “R” ‘s
Written by Richard Warne.
It was only six months ago when the S&P 500 in the US reached all-time highs, in a world where lingering supply chain pressures and potential COVID-19 outbreaks seemed to be the most pressing risks to equities. While those two risks have largely abated throughout the year, the refreshed slate of macro-overhangs may be more daunting than ever. From the heart-breaking war in Ukraine to unprecedented levels of inflation around the world, it is safe to say few could have imagined this is how 2022 would play out.
Rates, Recession and Refinance – the Three “R”’ ‘s. There is a lot to talk about within markets at large and credit in particular. We are now in an interesting part of the economic cycle, which we have not seen in almost 15 years. Rates and spreads (yields on corporate bonds are increasing) with both moving wider. Ultimately, this is now leading to much higher all-in financing rates for corporates, despite the fact there is not a massive wall of maturities (refinance risk) this year. As an example, if one priced today a typical “benchmark” high yield bond in Europe, the implied cost would be over 6.8%. However, at the start of 2022 the implied cost would have been closer to 2%, assuming one was pricing over the 5-year German government bond. Great in the medium term for bond investors, however higher all-in yields leads to a more difficult/expensive primary market, and we are seeing this play out now.
Russia is on the verge of defaulting on its external sovereign bonds for the first time in a century, the culmination of global sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. Because of the soaring price of energy, the Kremlin does have the means to pay its debt, just not the route, and any path forward remains uncertain.
In corporate news – Apple is planning an overhaul of some of its products which will set the stage for its next slate of devices and potentially an ambitious era for the Company. They include four iPhone 14 models, several Macs with M2 and M3 chips and the Company’s first mixed-reality headset, whatever that means!
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 4th July 2022.
© 2022 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - The Bear of Recession
Written by Ilaria Massei.
Last week’s focus was once again on Central Banks. Despite the Federal Reserve’s largest interest rate increase since 1994, the Fed’s Chair Jay Powell warned that a US recession is “certainly a possibility”. He argued that the US has been resilient to action a tougher monetary policy trying to avoid a downturn. However, this depends on factors that can no longer be controlled, such as rising commodity prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and further disruptions to supply chains.
The European Central Bank (ECB) warned the Eurozone that food prices will keep rising at near-record rates for at least another year. The Economic bulletin published by the ECB on the 23rd June stressed the fact that “already existing price pressures in the food sector have intensified following the Russian invasion of Ukraine”. One of the main points to be considered is that Russia exports more than a quarter of the fertiliser of the Eurozone’s consumption, however the Eurozone’s direct dependence on the region involved in the war is overall limited. Additionally, reduced supply from Russia and Ukraine can be compensated by greater supply from other countries. However, this solution could lead to higher prices and will likely increase inflation pressures in the upcoming months.
Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is sticking with its ultra-loose policy which consequently is weakening the yen against the dollar. However, the BoJ made it clear that its policy is not going to change, but it will pay attention in case of further developments. Russia is now at risk of default as the deadline for payment on Russia’s foreign debt has passed. Russia has reserves, thanks to oil exports, but many sanctions are excluding Russia from the global financial system, and this could possibly lead the country to default.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 27th June 2022.
© 2022 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - Data is driving the decisions
Written by Millan Chauhan.
Last week saw Boris Johnson win the vote of confidence from the Conservative MPs, claiming a 59% majority. Despite the majority, this was less than his predecessor Theresa May, who claimed a 63% margin before resigning months later amid the Brexit negotiations deadlock. Johnson’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and actions during national lockdowns has put into question his leadership, all of which instigated the vote of confidence last Monday.
Elsewhere, global markets continue to price in new releases of economic data with the US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8.6% at the end of May 2022. Core CPI (that excludes food and energy) rose 6.0% a year ago. If we take a more intrinsic look at headline inflation figures, this has largely been driven by Oil prices soaring by 48.7% which has impacted the prices of other areas such as Airline fares and Transportation which have risen 37.8% and 19.4% respectively. The acceleration of headline inflation keeps the pressure on the Federal Reserve who are set to meet over the next two days (14th – 15th June). Current rates in the US are at 1% with a further 0.50% rate rise expected to be announced this week.
Elsewhere, the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee is set to meet on Thursday and expected to raise interest rates by 0.25%, with UK CPI at 9.0% at the end of April 2022. Central banks continue to contend with several macroeconomic factors, including the effect of rate rises on the economy. The UK economy contracted by -0.3% month-over-month in April 2022. Ultimately, Central banks face a balancing act between how quickly existing rate rises can slow down inflation and not materially stall economic growth.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 13th June 2022.
© 2022 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
Rishi Sunak launches another round of help for the cost-of-living crisis
Chancellor Rishi Sunak has announced a fresh round of financial help for households facing ever-mounting living costs as inflation rises.
Sunak announced a raft of measures to help raise money and doled much of it out to households in varying amounts. It comes in the wake of an announcement a few days before from energy regulator, Ofgem, that the cap on average energy bills could rise to £2,800 per annum in the Autumn.
The package of measures has drawn criticisms at both ends with the Labour Party accusing the Chancellor of not doing enough for households, while economists have been questioning the wisdom of pouring more money into households’ pockets while inflation soars, and the Bank of England raises rates to attempt to slow spending.
But not all households are receiving equivalent amounts. So, what do the measures contain?
(Not a) windfall tax
The main tax-raising measure that the Chancellor has announced in order to fund measures for households is by taxing oil & gas and energy firms for the extraordinary profits they’ve received as a result of high energy prices.
The tax has been dubbed a ‘windfall tax’ in the media, but in practice is going by another name. Firms such as BP, Shell and British Gas owner Centrica will see a temporary 25% “Energy Profits Levy” imposed on their profits. This will increase their overall tax rate to 65% of profits, a combination of corporation tax and other levies they already pay.
The Chancellor says the measure will raise around £5 billion in the first year, but firms will be able to offset 91p for every £1 of their obligations if they invest in the UK’s energy infrastructure, a significant incentive.
Help for households
At the other end of the announcement – Sunak has announced significant help for households to pay for rising bills.
The core of this plan is a £400 grant which every household will receive in the Autumn. This replaces a previously launched £200 loan which was set to be paid back through higher energy bills in the future.
The grant will be paid out automatically to customers who use direct debit or credit payments for their energy bills. Households with prepaid or voucher-aid meters will have it applied to their meter automatically too.
Beyond this, around eight million households which currently receive means-tested benefits will get £650 cost-of-living payments, payable in two instalments in July and the Autumn. Those eligible will get the money automatically and needn’t apply.
Pensioners will also receive a £350 one-off payment, paid automatically. The disabled will also get another £150 one-off payment. Again, neither have to be applied for and will be funded through existing systems.
In total, the package of measures is expected to cost £15 billion – some way higher than what is being raised from the so-called windfall tax. The Government plans to fund the rest of the package through borrowing, but says it is doing so while maintaining fiscal responsibility.
NS&I to hike premium bond rates, but is it the place to put your cash?
With interest rates rising, NS&I has increased the rate on its premium bond prizes.
The rate on premium bond prizes is now equivalent to 1.4%, up from 1%, as of 1 June. With this the number of £100,000 prizes has increased from six to 10, while the number of £50,000 prizes has increased from 11 to 19.
As for the £1 million monthly winners, there will continue to be only two per month.
NS&I premium bonds work on a lottery basis, but with the likelihood of smaller prizes being much higher, the effective rate of return for your money is 1.4% per year – although this is still not guaranteed as it continues to function as a prize draw.
Premium bond or cash savings?
The question now is whether Premium Bonds, which are extremely popular, are worth putting money into or not.
There are two parts to this answer.
Firstly, ask – what is the money for? If you need it in the short term or if it is a rainy-day fund, then it should be kept in cash. You can cash in your premium bonds at any time, meaning they essentially function like an easy-access savings account (albeit without a guaranteed rate).
While you may scoop a £1 million prize, the odds of this are extremely low. You are, generally speaking, better off saving any short-term cash holdings into an actual easy-access savings account.
At the time of writing the best rates on offer come from Virgin Money club M Saver, offering 1.56% or the Chase Saver Account offering 1.5%. Both are easy-access so you can take your money out at any time.
The second part of the answer comes when considering longer-term saving. If the money you are putting away is for the long term, then realistically it needs to be saved through a tax-efficient vehicle such as an ISA or pension, and invested in assets such as stocks, bonds or other investments.
With inflation riding around 8% currently, saving into cash accounts over the long term is not only ineffective, but also actively reduces the value of your wealth. While the stock market has suffered turbulence in 2022, and is never guaranteed to perform, over time it still beats cash equivalents with ease.
Ultimately what matters then is having a cash fund which you can turn to for short-term needs – be that for a rainy day or to use for expenditure in the near future. But anything saved for the future should be invested.
When it comes to premium bonds, it might be a nice idea to hold a few just in case of that big win – but really the vast majority of your money should be elsewhere.
The World In A Week - A dreadful week for politics
Written by Shane Balkham.
Shinzo Abe, the former Japanese Prime Minister, was assassinated last week. He was shot twice while giving a campaign speech on Friday, in the run up to elections in Japan’s Upper House on Sunday. In the wake of the assassination, voter turnout was boosted and has given Fumio Kishida’s ruling coalition a landslide victory. The coalition won 93 of the 125 seats in the Upper House that were up for election, well above the two-thirds majority that is needed to revise the Japanese constitution.
However, the impact of Abe’s death will be significant for Japanese politics. Shinzo Abe was arguably the most influential leader that Japan has seen in decades, cleverly bringing people together. Although he stood down as Prime Minister due to health concerns, he still remained a dominant force in Japanese politics. The incident has naturally shocked Japan, where political violence has been rare and few people actually own firearms.
Less shocked were the population of the UK, which saw Boris Johnson quit as leader of the Conservative Party but confirmed he would be staying on as Prime Minister until a successor was elected. It has been a chaotic three years for Boris Johnson, which saw him steer the Conservative Party to its biggest victory in more than four decades at the 2019 general election, but ultimately it was his inability to tell the truth that has undermined his tenure.
It looks like it will be an ugly leadership contest to find the next Conservative Party leader and by default, the next Prime Minister. While Rishi Sunak has become the favourite amongst bookmakers, close allies of Boris Johnson are accusing the former Chancellor of being the catalyst of Johnson’s downfall. Loyalists of Boris Johnson will ensure they make the leadership contest as uncomfortable as possible for Sunak, despite his polished three-minute video extolling the virtues that he can bring to the UK as the next Prime Minister.
What the country needs is an honest, competent, and quick contest to find the next leader. However, there will be too many players in this race that will seek to gain an advantage any way they can. Let us hope it is a short race.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 11th July 2022.
© 2022 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.