The World In A Week - Crunch Time
Tensions are running high. The balance between keeping economies locked down in order to protect the health services, and the desire to loosen lockdown measures in order to lessen the long-term impacts, is coming to a head.
Here in the UK, there has been tentative rhetoric that we are preparing to lift restrictions, but attention has shifted towards accusations that Boris Johnson’s senior aide broke lockdown rules. All nations will need unity to help with smoothing the economics of a bounce back, and Dominic Cummings’ actions will certainly be an unwelcome spanner in the planning.
In the US, we have already commented on the increasing pressures between itself and China, mainly at the finger of Trump’s Twitter account. Over the weekend, it was the turn of China’s foreign minister to ratchet up the tension, accusing the US of pushing relations to a New Cold War. All of this could mean short-term volatility in financial markets.
However, support for markets from both central banks and governments remains significant. Last week, France and Germany proposed a €500 billion Recovery Fund that would represent a significant step towards fiscal mutualisation in the Eurozone. What does this mean? The idea is that the distribution of the Fund’s resources will be based on need, while the burden of the repayment will be based on ability. This will treat the Eurozone as a whole, with the arguably stronger nations, such as France and Germany taking on greater burden, while less well-off nations, such as Italy and Spain, can benefit from the resources of the Fund.
We knew the route to combat COVID-19 would be uncertain and we appear to be at another inflection point. While the short term remains unclear for markets, the monetary and fiscal support appears to be the one constant.
The World In A Week - Interim Update
It is happening again. President Donald Trump has been busy with his Twitter account this week and the focus of his attention is China. Trump’s increasingly critical comments of China could be a worry for the longer-term economic bounce back.
Whilst pent-up demand during lockdown is potentially a boost for US growth in the short term, restoring the level of growth to where it was before COVID-19 will require a stronger underlying economy, and reawakening trade tensions with China will not help.
There is more at play here than meets the eye though; casting China as the villain has been successful in the past for Trump’s approval ratings, and in a recent survey amongst Republican voters, disapproval of China is at 72%. With the US Presidential Election not far off, seeds are already being planted for campaign strategies. For the Trump team, it will be a difficult balancing act of building political support and ultimately keeping the trade deal alive.
In the UK we saw the official rate of inflation drop significantly from 1.5% in March to 0.8% for April, and below economists’ expectations of 0.9%. Driven downwards by falling commodity prices, as well as reduced spending and increased savings, a result of having so many people in lockdown. This has prompted the Bank of England to make a U-turn on the possibility of negative interest rates in the UK.
The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, confirmed that policy had changed slightly and that they were reviewing all tools possible to help alleviate the impact of the coronavirus. He did stress that the Bank needed time to consider the implications of such a move and they want to see how the economy reacts to the previous rate cut to 0.1% before enacting further monetary policy.
The World In A Week – Interim Update
We knew it was coming, but that did not stop the market from overreacting to what is undeniably a certainty.
The UK economy shrank at the fastest monthly rate on record during March, due to the lockdown and the enforced economic slowdown. UK gross domestic product (GDP) fell 5.8% compared with the previous month, making it the largest drop since records of monthly GDP began in 1997.
It also meant that the UK has had its first quarter-on-quarter drop in GDP since the Global Financial Crisis. The 2% fall compares to falls of 1.2% for the US and 3.8% for the Eurozone. The recession will technically become official when we have a negative reading for this quarter, as you need two consecutive negative quarters for a recession.
Although much of this was widely expected, it did not stop the market reacting wildly. The first three days of this week saw the FTSE 100 swing more than 200 points, evidencing that volatility is here to stay. As we wrote on Monday, the likelihood of a ‘V’ shaped recovery has dissipated, and our base case of a ‘W’ shaped market is looking more probable.
That means more commitments of economic stimulus if markets became too unruly. In anticipation of this, we have already had proposals from the US of an additional $3 trillion fiscal package. However, there is a conflict building between those who see these extreme measures as absolutely necessary, and those that fear the spectre of rising debt will come back to haunt us. Exceptional times call for exceptional measures and ultimately the combined total of the global promises is essential to combat the global pandemic.
The World In A Week - Phoney War
Last week saw a moderate rise in the value of risk assets with the FTSE All Share up +0.65% and the MSCI All Country World Index down -0.36% in GBP terms, as the value of Sterling rose against the Dollar and many other major currencies. Within Equities, the Emerging Markets and Europe lead the way, while Japanese Equities lagged.
This sentiment was also broadly reflected in Fixed Income markets, Investment Grade Credit, High Yield Bonds and Emerging Market Debt all advanced – while Treasury returns were more subdued.
The relative tranquillity observed in markets was at odds with the slew of dreadful economic news that hit the headlines last week. It was announced that the US economy lost 20.5m jobs in April, rocketing the unemployment rate to 14.7% - a new post-war high. Consensus is now gathering that the likelihood of a “V shaped” recovery from the coronavirus is getting closer to zero. The unprecedented increases in unemployment are likely to take a long time to unwind, and consumer’s purchasing power and habits may well be changed for good.
However, since their nadir on the 23rd March 2020, Equity markets have paid little heed to the deteriorating economic fundamentals, with MSCI ACWI up +18.2% and the S&P 500 up +21% in GBP terms. In the riskier Fixed Income markets, we have also seen a strong rally in High Yield Bonds from their lows, although this is arguably not as over-extended as the Equity markets. As we celebrated Victory in Europe Day over the Bank Holiday weekend, it has begun to feel like a phoney war mentality has taken over the markets – one that may collide with reality in due course. While the rally demonstrates the necessity of maintaining market exposure through all stages of a cycle, we remain neutral on Equities at this point.
The World In A Week – Interim Update
A week that has been punctuated by uncertainty and conjecture. As we get to the end of the second three-week lockdown period in the UK, headlines are full of rumour. No one knows what the effect of easing the restrictions will be, and as we have written previously, fear is one of the biggest dangers to the economy.
The economics of ending a lockdown seem to depend on fear and confidence. Consumers need to have assurance around the security of their jobs and feel safe about their risks to their health. If that scenario occurs, then there is the likelihood of consumers spending that short-term pent-up demand.
The balancing act is all about the timing. Too soon and the conditions mentioned above will fail and the potential short-term economic bounce will be snuffed out. That is the tightrope politicians are walking; managing the populations’ expectations, with as light touch as possible around social control, while knowing the longer the delay, means the longer the overall economic recovery.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England has left policy unchanged at their meeting yesterday. Whilst the committee voted unanimously to maintain interest rates at 0.1%, there was also a majority vote of 7-2 to continue with the programme of purchasing £200 billion of UK government bonds and non-financial investment grade corporate bonds. The two members who dissented were actually looking to increase the purchases by an additional £100 billion. A reminder that central bank policy around the world is still firmly in supportive mode.
The World In A Week - The End Of The Beginning
Boris Johnson returned to no. 10 in full capacity last week after successfully defeating the coronavirus. Boris returns to a torn party, split by those in favour of easing lockdown restrictions and those that believe lockdown restrictions should remain in place for longer. Clarity was provided as the week progressed with indications that lockdown measures will be eased, although to what extent, is currently unknown. Boris has promised to outline a ‘comprehensive’ plan of how we will move out of lockdown on Thursday; media speculation is already underway with the primary focus on allowing individuals to choose up to 10 people to include in their social circle.
In a further blow to income investors, UK dividend cuts continued to gather pace. FTSE 100 constituent, Shell, stunned investors by cutting its quarterly dividend by 66% following the collapse in global oil demand and the virus pandemic. The UK dividend market is a key component in global equity income portfolios and given the pace of dividend cuts across the UK market, will put global equity income managers under pressure, with many expected to miss their yield objectives. Income has been a key area of focus for the Investment team and we are finding other areas of opportunity. Asia, an area not typically associated with income, has proved an interesting hunting ground, the region has a lower payout ratio but fewer dividend cuts are expected. Infrastructure is also another area of interest; the sector typically yields between 4-5% and is expected to provide an element of protection in a downturn.
In Europe, the ECB made no changes to interest rates last Thursday but emphasised they remain poised to increase stimulus if needed. The eurozone is expected to be one of the areas hardest hit and will likely suffer a deep recession. While the ECB has confirmed it will do ‘whatever it takes’ to support the euro area, should the current daily pace at which the ECB is buying government bonds continue, the program will reach its limit in October. Last month, the ECB reduced costs for commercial banks to support lending activity and last week, said it would reduce these interest rates further to -1% - effectively paying them to borrow money. Data in the region published on the same day, revealed that the economy had contracted by 3.8% in the first quarter, an all-time low since records began in 1995.
Bank Of England Interest Rate Cut: What Does It Mean For Finances?
Over the last few months, speculation that the Bank of England would increase its base interest rate has been mounting. However, the impact of Covid-19 has changed that, leading to the central bank making two cuts to the interest rate in quick succession.
Coinciding with the 2020 Budget, the base rate was cut from 0.75%, where it’s been since August 2018, to 0.25% on Wednesday 11th March. Just a week later, the rate was cut again on Thursday 19th March to just 0.1%. The latest cut represents a historic low, and it could have an impact on your finances.
The Bank of England base rate is the official borrowing rate of the central bank, affecting what it charges other banks and lenders when they borrow money. This then has a knock-on effect on personal finances.
Why has the Bank of England cut interest rates?
The rate cuts have been in direct response to the coronavirus pandemic.
As the virus has spread globally, it’s had a significant impact on economies. In the UK, non-key workers have been urged to work from home, pubs and other leisure facilities have been temporarily ordered to close, and many other businesses have taken the decisions to either reduce operations or suspend them. These are steps that are hoped to stem the spread and relieve pressure on the healthcare system but come at an economic cost.
The latest interest rate cut has increased its quantitative easing stimulus package and pumped more money into the UK economy. The aim of this is to calm the financial markets, which have experienced volatility over the last few weeks, and stabilise the economy.
In a statement, the Bank of England said: “Over recent days, and in common with a number of other advanced economy bond markets, conditions in the UK gilt markets have deteriorated as investors sought shorter-dated instruments that are closer substitutes for highly liquid central bank reserves. As a consequence, the UK and global financial conditions have tightened.”
The Monetary Policy Committee, which is responsible for setting the base rate, voted unanimously to increase the Bank of England’s holding of UK government bonds and sterling non-financial-grade corporate bonds by £200 billion, bringing the total to £645 billion.
But what does this mean for your finances? The impact will depend on whether you’re looking at borrowing or saving.
Borrowers
For some borrowers, the lower interest rate is good news. This is due to the cut lowering the cost of borrowing.
The area where you’re likely to see the most immediate impact is your mortgage if you have a tracker or variable rate one. A tracker mortgage, for example, tracks the Bank of England base rate, so your mortgage repayments should drop before your next payment. A variable mortgage tracks your lender’s interest rate, this will follow the trend of the Bank of England, and most borrowers will benefit from the full 0.65% drop, but it does vary. It’s worth checking with your lender about how your mortgage repayments will change if they haven’t already contacted you.
Unfortunately, those with a fixed-rate mortgage won’t benefit from the rate cut.
Savers
The years since the financial crisis have been difficult for savers. Low-interest rates over the last decade have meant savings aren’t working as hard as they may have done before 2008.
Interest rates on savings accounts are now likely to fall even further. When you factor in the pace of inflation, this means that many savings are likely to be losing value in real terms. This has a particular effect if you’re saving for medium and long-term goals. Inflation rising by a couple of percentage points each year can have a large impact when you assess the impact over ten or 20 years, for instance.
If you have a fixed-rate account, your interest rate and savings will be protected for the time being. However, if you have savings in other types of accounts, it’s likely the amount they earn will fall eventually. Banks must give existing customers at least two months’ notice of a cut, for current accounts and instant-access savings accounts.
For long-term saving goals, investing can help savings match the pace of inflation, maintaining your spending power. However, it’s important to note that investment values can fall and experience volatility, with the pandemic having an impact on markets too. As a result, it’s important to assess your financial goals and risk profile before making any investment decisions.
If you’re unsure what the base rate change means for you, please contact us. We’re here to help you adjust financial plans and goals as circumstances change, whether they’re within your control or not.
Please note: The value of your investment can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
What Does Coronavirus Mean For My Pension And Retirement?
As the coronavirus pandemic continues to dominate world headlines, here’s what it might mean for your pension and retirement plans.
The pandemic has created uncertainty in economies around the globe. As a result, stock markets have experienced shocks and over the last few weeks have seen significant falls. Fears of a recession following the pandemic have sparked even more concern. It’s natural to be worried about what the impact on financial markets means for your future. Understanding what the change means, and where adjustments may need to be made, can help you plan for retirement with confidence.
What impact has coronavirus had on pensions?
For most people, pensions will be invested. This gives your pension an opportunity to grow over the several decades you’re likely to be paying into a pension. However, it does mean your retirement savings are exposed to market volatility. In the last few weeks, this will mean pension values are likely to have fallen.
The full impact will depend on where your pension is invested. It’s important to keep in mind that a pension doesn’t just hold stocks and shares, other assets are used to create balanced portfolios. So, whilst news updates may say the stock market has fallen 20%, it’s unlikely your pension will have suffered a fall on the same scale.
If you’re worried about your pension, it’s worth checking the value. However, keep in mind that short-term volatility is to be expected at the best of times. Keep the bigger picture in mind and look at the value of your pension with your retirement plans in mind.
The impact coronavirus will have on retirement plans will depend on what stage you’re at.
- Your retirement is still several years away
If retirement is still some way off, the current market activity shouldn’t affect your retirement plans.
You should always invest with a long-term goal in mind, this provides an opportunity for peaks and troughs to smooth out to deliver gradual investment gains when you look at the bigger picture. Whilst past performance isn’t a reliable indicator of the future, previous market corrections and crashes have always been followed by a period of recovery.
So, whilst it’s natural to worry if your pension value has fallen, stick with your long-term plan.
- You hope to retire soon
If retirement is nearing, it’s natural to worry about your pension in any circumstances. It’s a life milestone that means we often have to change the way we view income and finances. As a result, a stock market crash just before the date can be worrisome.
The first thing to do here is to put the stock market falls into perspective. You’ve likely been saving into a pension for many decades. No one likes investment values to fall, but when you look at it in comparison to the gains made, you’ve probably done well financially.
You also need to look at your pension value in the context of your retirement plans: Will the current value of your pension provide you with the income needed throughout retirement? If not, what is the shortfall?
This can be difficult to weigh up, as there are numerous factors to take into consideration. Working with a financial planner can help you understand how the pension figure translates to a retirement lifestyle. If there is a shortfall, there are often steps you can take to bridge the gap, from delaying retirement to using other assets.
It’s also worth noting that, depending on your goals and desired retirement lifestyle, your adviser may have ‘lifestyled’ your pension already. This is where your savings are switched to a lower risk profile that aims to preserve the savings you already have as you near retirement. If this is the case, it’s likely the impact on your pension is lower as you’ll be less exposed.
- You’re already retired
If you’re already retired and choose to access your pension flexibly using Flexi-Access Drawdown, the current activity may have an impact. This is because your pension savings remain invested with the goal of delivering returns whilst you’re retired. However, the flip side of this is that you’re exposed to market volatility.
The important thing to recognise here is how your withdrawals will have an impact in the long term. Making withdrawals whilst the market is low means you must sell more units to secure the same income. This can deplete your retirement savings quicker than expected. As a result, it’s worth reviewing how much you’re withdrawing.
If you’re able to reduce withdrawals or temporarily pause them, this can help to minimise the impact on your pension savings in the long term. You may have other assets, such as cash savings, that can be used to tide you over until the markets begin to recover. If you find yourself in this situation, please contact us. There are often solutions that will enable you to maintain your lifestyle and future.
Having confidence in your retirement aspirations
Whether you’re already retired or you’re still working towards that goal, it’s important to have confidence in your plans. This includes understanding the lifestyle your pension will provide and how market shocks would have an impact over the short and long term. This is where financial planning can help. If the recent volatility means you have concerns about pension investments, we’re here to help you. In some cases, it may simply be understanding how pensions will grow over the next ten years, in others, adjustments may be necessary, such as reassessing your risk profile or increasing contributions. Please contact us to discuss your pension and retirement goals.
Please note: A pension is a long-term investment. The fund value may fluctuate and can go down, which would have an impact on the level of pension benefits available. Your pension income could also be affected by the interest rates at the time you take your benefits.
The tax implications of pension withdrawals will be based on your individual circumstances, tax legislation and regulation which are subject to change in the future.
Is A SIPP The Right Investment Product For You?
The Self-Invested Personal Pension (SIPP) was first introduced over 30 years ago and large numbers of investors have opted for one since. Their greater flexibility and the amount of control they offer has led to them being branded ‘DIY pensions’ in some quarters.
If you’re confident about investing in the stock market and have a sizeable pension fund, or you’re looking to use a pension product to invest in commercial property, then a SIPP may well be the right option for you.
But they’re not for everyone. Greater control means greater responsibility and a potentially increased risk.
What is a SIPP?
A SIPP is a Self-Invested Personal Pension, open to anyone who meets the eligibility requirements of their chosen SIPP provider.
A minimum fund size may apply, and this might be comparatively high. This is because the costs of administering a SIPP can be larger than for a standard personal pension, due in part to the flexibility and control a SIPP offers.
A SIPP can give you greater control because you can choose from a wider range of investment options but you can also opt for a managed portfolio, based on your risk profile.
You can also use a SIPP to invest in commercial property.
Still, a SIPP is unlikely to be right for first-time or beginner investors.
Why might you choose a SIPP?
SIPPS can be a great investment choice in some circumstances and for a certain type of investor. You might choose to open a SIPP if:
- You have experience of investing
A SIPP gives you control over the investments you choose but this means greater responsibility too.
You’ll likely have complete flexibility and control over your investment portfolio, with a wide range of funds to choose from and different asset classes available.
This might increase the potential for investment growth but also means you’ll need to have a very definite understanding of your attitude to risk.
Your SIPP provider might offer a range of bespoke portfolios, tailored to different risk profiles.
- Your pension fund is large or you intend to invest a large amount
SIPPs can be more ‘hands-on’ for both you and your SIPP provider. This can lead to higher charges than with other pension products.
If your pot is large, you may be able to soak up these additional costs (your SIPP provider may have a limit on the minimum investment). Even if your initial investment is low, if you intend to significantly increase contributions once the SIPP is in place, this may offset the charges.
- You’re looking to hold commercial property in your SIPP
Commercial property could include business premises, factories or offices, and there are two main ways that these can be held in a SIPP.
- Use your pension fund to purchase the property, placing the premises directly in the SIPP
- Use equity release on a property you already own to effectively exchange a pre-existing pension pot for the property. This approach is considered extremely high risk and will only be appropriate in limited circumstances.
Holding commercial property in a SIPP has benefits, including:
- The rent you receive is paid directly into the SIPP, rather than counting as personal income, and therefore isn’t liable to Income Tax
- You won't pay any Capital Gains Tax on the sale of the property – because the property is held in the SIPP and any gains belong to the pension
- You can also use up to 50% of the SIPP value as a loan to purchase your commercial property, held against the value of the SIPP. Your personal (and professional) finances are protected if the property is repossessed.
When wouldn’t you choose a SIPP?
A SIPP isn’t a mass-market product but was instead intended for a very selective market. Its move into the mass-market has led to some people being invested in SIPPS who shouldn’t be – paying higher fees when they would be better off in a personal pension.
Consider an alternative to a SIPP if:
- Your pension pot is relatively small
SIPPs can have high charges compared to other pension products. Whereas a high fund value can help to soak up these charges, if you have a relatively small fund, you could see a large portion of it eaten up.
Consider whether other pension products might be right for you and if you’re still unsure, speak to us.
- You are a first-time, or relatively inexperienced, investor
SIPPs are complex products that offer a lot of choices.
They also offer the potential for increased risk. Although they might be suitable for experienced investors, consider other products if you are new to investing or still relatively inexperienced.
- You are risk-averse
The control and flexibility that SIPPs offer is great if you’re an experienced investor, but less so if you are new to investing. If you are risk-averse there are other pension products available – get in touch with us if you’d like to discuss your investment options.
Coronavirus, Life Insurance And Critical Illness Cover: What Will And Won’t Pay Out?
With more than 1.8 million confirmed cases of coronavirus worldwide and fears that up 80% of the UK population will fall ill as a result of the global pandemic, many people are looking to their insurance providers to clarify what will and won’t be covered.
If you have not received any clarification directly from your insurer, then here are a few facts that may help you understand your current position.
What does life insurance cover?
Whilst there are many different types of life insurance, strictly speaking, they should all do one important job – pay out if you die during the term of the policy. This relies on you having kept up to date with your premiums, answered all the application questions honestly, and, if you have a term life insurance policy, that you are within the covered period.
All life insurance policies will contain some special circumstances under which they will not pay. These, however, will vary from policy to policy. To be sure exactly which exemptions apply to your policy, you must take a detailed read through your policy documents or contact your provider for clarification. Some, for example, will not pay out if you are deemed culpable for your own death in some way.
However, the life insurance companies who have so far issued statements have all made it clear that they will be honouring all policies where death occurs due to the coronavirus pandemic.
What do the life insurance companies say about coronavirus?
In common with other major insurance providers, Zurich say that if a customer holding a Zurich life insurance policy dies of coronavirus, they will pay out following their “normal claims process and assessment”.
Aviva are also clear they will be paying out.
“With the news that Covid-19, more commonly known as coronavirus, is spreading across the UK we want to give you clarification around our claims and underwriting position.
We're continuing to pay all valid claims and committed to giving you access to valuable protection insurance. We remain a market-leading protection insurer for claim paid amounts.”
Vitality state that “Covid-19 or any other infectious disease which results in the plan holder dying, will be covered.” Beagle Street have stated the same.
While some insurers have not yet issued any statement regarding the Covid-19 outbreak, those who have make it clear that there is no pandemic or epidemic exclusion for life insurance.
This means if you have a current life insurance policy and you have continued to pay your premiums, your beneficiaries should receive a pay out if you die from Covid-19 or related complications.
What about Critical Illness cover?
When it comes to Critical Illness cover, however, things become a bit less straightforward.
Generally, insurers have been saying that they will not pay out on Critical Illness cover as a result of coronavirus because it is not a specified illness under the terms of their policy.
They also state that most people who contract it go on to make a full recovery which is, thankfully, true. However, around 5% of those infected face critical illness as a result of contracting the virus, including respiratory failure, septic shock and multiple organ failure.
Additionally, medical professionals are now saying that some of those who are infected with Covid-19 and who do not die from it, do suffer from what are most likely to be lasting lung conditions. Under these circumstances, you may be able to make a claim, but this will depend on the exact wording of your policy.
Zurich, in answer to enquiries on this question, have stated that:
“Coronavirus is not a specified ‘Critical Illness’ on Zurich’s policy.
Under our ‘Respiratory Failure – Of Specified Severity’ definition, it is possible a claim might be presented but the opinion of our Claims and Medical Officer is that the coronavirus is unlikely to produce the permanent symptoms or impairment to lung function required to meet this definition.
We will consider any such claims presented on the basis of the individual circumstances”
In response to enquiries from members of the public who are understandably confused and worried, the Association of British Insurers (ABI) have attempted to bring some clarity.
Their advice is that customers should expect insurers to treat any claim for coronavirus in the same way they would treat other claims for Critical Illness cover. They also advise customers to note that Critical Illness cover is only paid out where it falls under the specific set of criteria laid down in the ABI Guide to Minimum Standards for Critical Illness Cover.
All Critical Illness policies are required under these minimum requirements to cover heart attack, stroke and cancer, but beyond that, policies can and do vary. It may be that one policy covers for coma, respiratory failure and kidney failure – which may come about in the most serious Covid-19 cases – while others will not.
In other words, the only way to be sure what your Critical Illness policy will cover you or your loved ones for is to read your policy terms and conditions or check directly with your insurer. It may be that while coronavirus infection itself is not a covered condition on any Critical Illness policy, the complications that can arise from it, are.
Contacting your insurer
If you have any further questions about your policy cover, then you should in the first instance consult your insurer. Be warned, however, that their phone lines may be very busy at the moment, so it may be better to check their website for information. Most providers have updated their websites to include answers to specific questions about Covid-19 for worried customers.
The ABI provides some reassurance that while this is a particularly difficult time for claimants and insurers alike, they are doing everything in their power to keep their operations running as efficiently as possible and to offer clear and up-to-date information to their customers.
If you have any questions about the life or Critical Illness cover you have in place, please get in touch with us.
Please note
All details are correct as of 24th March 2020 and are taken from each insurance company’s website.