The World In A Week - Inflated Expectations Return to Earth
Last week was a negative one for markets, as the MSCI All Country World Index of global stocks returned -2.3% in GBP terms.
The stand-out macroeconomic event of the week was the release of US inflation data on Wednesday, which revealed that prices were rising faster than market participants had anticipated. The increase in consumer price inflation came to +4.2% over the 12 months to April, the highest reading since 2008. This has been spurred on by monetary stimulus in the form of asset purchases from the Federal Reserve, the large fiscal stimulus planned by the Biden administration; as well as significant supply bottlenecks experienced by many raw material producers. This has seen the price of commodities such as lumber, copper, and corn rocket higher, albeit from quite a low base.
Increased inflation expectations, coupled with the higher interest rates which central banks may feel they now need to implement sooner, led to quite a substantial sell-off in the very frothy end of the US Tech sector (particularly the unprofitable parts, of which there are many). The NASDAQ Index of US Tech names was down -3.1% for the week, while retail favourites packed with loss-making “moonshot” stocks such as the ARK Disruptive Innovation ETF and the Baillie Gifford Global Discovery Fund lost -6.0% and -6.9% respectively. We continue to find the prices of assets in this end of the market to be disconnected from reality and increasingly unattractive in a potential rising inflation and interest rate environment. What was also amusing to observe, in a week where inflation exceeded expectations, was a -18.3% fall in the price of Bitcoin. The legion of online zealots touting the cryptocurrency as an inflation hedge may need to review their investment hypothesis.
Segments of the market, which we have been more constructive on, performed relatively better over the week. Global value stocks outperformed global growth names by +1.9%, while the value-orientated UK Equity market (which we are overweight) was the best performing global equity asset class for the week.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 17th May 2021.
Inflation is back – should you be worried?
Inflation has been off the agenda for investors for years, but prices are rising again – and it could have implications for your finances.
Inflation has been low by historical standards for much of the past decade, with price growth falling particularly sharply over the past three years. Never the easiest factor to track when it comes to your finances – a situation not helped by the amount of measures for inflation which exist – inflation has nonetheless been muted for the past few years. Using the Government’s preferred method of calculating inflation – known as CPIH – we can see that inflation has been below its official target of 2% since July 2019.
What is CPIH
CPIH stands for The Consumer Prices Index including Owner Occupiers’ Housing and covers the cost of a list of everyday items consumers buy or use, including housing costs. Between July 2019, when it stood at 2%, CPIH has plunged as low as 0.5% in the depths of the pandemic last August, before recovering as the economy unlocked. It currently stands at 1% as of March, with the reading for April due out later this month. Clearly this is some way off the Bank of England’s own target of 2%, but the important thing to remember with inflation is the trajectory, not the absolute number. This was alluded to at the latest Bank of England meeting when Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank and head of the committee which monitors inflation, said inflation could be “a bit bumpy this year.”
Indeed, the central projection from the Bank is that, as the vaccine programme continues and the economy unlocks more, it should mean the CPIH figure jumps above 2% towards the end of this year. There is also the ever-present risk that it goes higher than forecast, with factors such as rising commodity prices and demand for goods and services also having the potential to exceed forecasts and push up the overall inflation number.
Should you worry about rising inflation?
Inflation is bad for some of your investments, in particular cash. The value of cash is eroded over time by inflation, so a pound today buys you substantially less than it did 20 years ago, for example. For investors sitting on large amounts of cash, rising inflation is problematic at this point in time because interest rates – and therefore the interest the bank pays you for leaving your money in cash – are at record lows. The Bank of England was forced to cut rates to 0.1% in the UK last year in response to the pandemic, and it has yet to raise them from this level. With inflation currently at 1%, it means the value of any cash you may have in the bank is being eroded every year, unless it is in a bank account paying more than 1%.
For investments too, rising inflation has implications. Some investments, like commodities such as oil, can protect portfolios from rising inflation, as they often rise in tandem. Investments such as bonds, on the other hand, suffer because they pay holders a fixed amount of interest every year, and if inflation rises it can often leave these bonds paying an income that is below the inflation rate.
What can you do about it?
As with all investments, including cash, investors should regularly review their holdings. If inflation is rising, there are a number of options to counter its damaging effects on your wealth, including investing in equities, commodities, and some inflation-linked investments which track the inflation rate.
However, as always, if you have any concerns or queries the best course of action is to get in touch with your adviser.
A quarter of a million over 55s get caught out by this pension tax trap each year – don’t be one of them
The little-known Money Purchase Annual Allowance is catching out thousands of pension savers each year. Here are a few ways to prevent yourself from falling into the trap.
A little-known pensions rule catches out thousands of savers every year, and has potentially become more prevalent because of the pandemic, according to new data. Some 5,000 over 55s are stung every week by a little-known pensions rule called the Money Purchase Annual Allowance (MPAA), data from retirement firm Just Group has shown. The Money Purchase Annual Allowance (MPAA) is a specific rule which can be accidentally triggered by savers, cutting the amount they can save in to pensions tax-free under their annual allowance. The figures from Just Group suggest some 260,000 people are being caught out by the rule every year.
What is the Money Purchase Annual Allowance?
The Money Purchase Annual Allowance (MPAA) is a rule which defines how much you can deposit into a pension each year and still receive tax relief on those contributions. The normal limit is £40,000 and is defined by the amount you contribute into a Defined Contribution (DC) pension, including employer contributions. With Defined Benefit (DB) pensions – also known as final salary pensions – this is defined as the amount by which it increases in value each year. However, the MPAA - which is triggered by a particular set of circumstances - can cut an individual’s annual allowance from £40,000 to £4,000.
Those triggers include:
- Taking an entire pension pot as a lump sum or starting to take ad-hoc lump sums from a pension pot
- Putting pension pot money into a flexi-access drawdown scheme and taking an income
- Buying an investment-linked or flexible annuity where income could drop
- Having a pre-April 2015 capped drawdown plan and taking payments that exceed the cap
The rule is in place so that no one can benefit from having a pension income while still feeding new cash into a pension pot and taking the benefit of tax relief. While the rule is a feature of the system rather than a failure, the contention is that some over 55s who may not have otherwise triggered the MPAA during normal times, have been inadvertently hit by it during the coronavirus crisis. For instance – someone aged 55 may have been in full-time employment and still contributing to their pension regularly, with no intention of drawing money out of the pension because they still had a salary. Thanks to the economic crisis caused by the pandemic, they may have since needed to access extra cash as an emergency, or even lost their employment, and with it, regular pension contributions.
Even if the MPAA is triggered under these circumstances the person is treated as if they’re now living on their pension income. They are then unable to return to making regular contributions up to £40,000, even if they don’t intend on using their pension for an income and still want to put more in.
What is the best way to avoid MPAA?
The good news is, there are some steps you can take to avoid being penalised inadvertently.
- Have a rainy day fund. Many people have been forced to trigger the allowance because they’ve needed short-term cash during a crisis. Having a solid rainy-day fund in cash savings would prevent this.
- Don’t take more than the 25% tax-free lump sum from your pension. You can take up to 25% from your pension tax-free, so if you don’t go over this, it won’t trigger the MPAA
- Take from smaller pension pots first. Any pension pot you have under £10,000 will be exempt from MPAA if you make a withdrawal. However, you can only do this in a maximum of three non-occupational pots.
Once you retire and begin to rely more on your pension the MPAA may become unavoidable. But if you’re no longer earning a salary or contributing new cash routinely to a pot, this shouldn’t be a huge issue. The trick is to be careful around the time when you are looking to use some pension funds if you are still earning from a salary and trying to save and benefit from tax relief.
If you’re interested in discussing the MPAA more, or want to know anything else about your pension, don’t hesitate to get in touch with your adviser.
Top tips for getting the most out of your money online
There is no question that money is going digital, with the pandemic speeding the switch away from cash. But how can you make your money go further in a digital world? Here are some ideas to help you stay safe and get the most out of your money online.
Internet usage has surged during the pandemic, from online food shopping to banking and much more. Among older age groups in particular, Age UK has found many who may not have used online services before are now doing so, with one in four (24%) pensioners using the internet more in 2020 than the year before. But like all things, there are pros and cons, especially when it comes to handling your finances online. While using the internet can be very easy and efficient, it also opens up risks to things like scammers and making inadvertent mistakes. Luckily, there are some steps we can all take to stay safe online, and to get the most out of the internet for our hard-earned money.
Take advantage of online tools
When it comes to taking out financial products such as loans or credit cards, the internet is your friend. Gone are the days of nervy conversations with credit card companies and accidental marks on your credit file. Instead, there is now a plethora of online tools that perform so-called ‘soft checks’ that will help you understand whether you are eligible for certain products based on your credit history. There are several to choose from, but in particular we like MoneySavingExpert’s as it is a trustworthy financial brand.
Keep an eye on your credit history
Speaking of credit histories, keeping yours in check is also vital. It is no secret that often, the big credit checking firms like Experian and Equifax make mistakes on individual’s’ credit files. It could be that your address is listed slightly wrong, or information such as the electoral register is missing. Unfortunately, this can have a significant impact on your credit history. Therefore, it is important to keep an eye on it – while some services charge for you to see your history on a regular basis, others, such as ClearScore or CreditKarma, give you free monthly access to your report.
Use comparison sites
Price comparison sites sometimes have a mixed reputation but for the most part they are extremely useful ways to hunt down the best deals online. From mobile phone contracts to insurance, you can find the cheapest deals possible on these websites. The trick is to not necessarily buy the very cheapest product on offer though. The cheapest deals will often come with caveats, but if you read the small print and weigh up the benefits of new policies, comparison sites can make shopping around very efficient. We’d recommend looking on the comparison site, then comparing directly with the providers that get listed – sometimes even better deals can emerge, and then you have a comparative price to think about too. Good comparison sites we like include Moneysupermarket, uSwitch and GoCompare.
If in doubt, step away
Financial scams are a big problem with the internet these days. All it takes is for you to click the wrong link or reply to the wrong email and the losses could be devastating. Therefore, the safest way to navigate the internet can be to step away from the offer or deal you’ve just seen and then try the old-fashioned way by calling up a provider if you want to know more. If you’re contacted by someone who seems to be from a reputable company out of the blue, tell them you’d rather discuss what they want to speak about at a different time. If you are the one making contact rather than them, you can make sure you are in control of the conversation. The message more broadly is to always have your guard up. The internet has given us all access to an array of options and choice has never been greater, but unscrupulous people are a fact of life.
Struggling to make ends meet? Here are seven ways you can rein in your outgoings
Around 10.7 million Brits have “low financial resilience”, according to the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). That means nearly one in five UK adults would struggle financially if their income dropped by £50 a month or they were hit with an unexpected bill. The best way to give yourself some more breathing space is to give your finances a spring clean.
Here are a few ways you can shrink your outgoings and lower your stress levels.
Track your spending
It may sound obvious, but understanding where your money goes every month is a good first step in trying to limit your outgoings. You’ll be surprised how little things add up. If your bank doesn’t offer detailed spending breakdowns, go through recent current account and credit card statements to see what you’re spending your money on. Make a note of these in a spreadsheet and track your spending on a monthly basis to keep on top of finances. Once you’ve done that, it’s a good idea to create a budget and to set spending limits for things like food shopping, leisure, holidays and other items.
Always go shopping with a list
Supermarkets are experts at making us spend money on things we hadn’t planned on buying or have no real need for. To avoid being lured into spending money you don’t have, make a shopping list before you go to the supermarket and stick to it.
Make meals at home
Everyone likes the odd takeaway treat or going out for meals with family and friends, but it can take its toll on your wallet if you indulge too often. Instead, why not try making your restaurant favourites at home? The internet is awash with free recipe ideas catering for beginner cooks, all the way to seasoned pros.
Cancel unused subscriptions
Many of us have unused subscriptions or memberships that we don’t really need, whether it be Netflix, Amazon Prime or a monthly recurring pass to the gym. If you don’t use it, why not cancel it? It’s amazing how much money you can save over the course of a year by doing so. You can always restart your subscription further down the line if you want to.
Switch energy/broadband providers
Nearly one in four of us have never switched energy company, according to Moneysupermarket, meaning millions of Brits are overpaying for gas and electricity. The comparison website claims the average Brit could save £250 off their annual energy bills by switching to a lower cost provider. At the very least, it’s worth a look.
Consolidate your debts
If you have lots of loans and credit card payments going out each month, it might be worth consolidating your debts. Personal loan rates are very low at the moment, so there’s a good chance you could save some money by paying them off with a lump sum which you then repay in one payment. By having one repayment, instead of multiple, it’s also easier to keep tabs on your finances.
Remortgage
Mortgage rates have tumbled in recent years, meaning there is a very good chance you could save money by remortgaging. However, before you go ahead, check if you’ll have to pay any penalties for breaking your current agreement.
The World In A Week - Shuffling of the Cards
Last week local elections took place across the UK that saw the Conservatives extend their dominance over Labour, making a net gain of twelve councils with Labour losing control of eight. Labour’s poor local election performance prompted Sir Keir Starmer to reshuffle his cabinet, with Anneliese Dodds being replaced by Rachel Reeves as Shadow Chancellor. However, there was more promising news for Labour as Sadiq Khan was successfully re-elected as London Mayor for another term.
Elsewhere, the Scottish National Party gained another seat but missed out on a total majority with Nicola Sturgeon stating that they will push forward with legislation to propose a second Scottish independence referendum, which is likely to take place in 2022 at the very earliest. Attention now turns towards Boris Johnson who is expected to set out several new bills aimed to support businesses post-Brexit, with the creation of eight new freeports in England and a bill set to boost housebuilding in northern regions.
With the UK demonstrating that the strong vaccine rollout can curb the transmission rate of the virus, with just over 17.5 million people having now been fully inoculated and hospital admission rates falling significantly, just over 51% of the UK has now received their first dose, which ranks second globally. Off the back of this, Boris Johnson is also set to approve the next stage of the reopening of the UK economy, which includes the reopening of most businesses, including pubs and restaurants serving indoors. Indoor sports and cinemas will also be allowed to reopen, as well as the ability to allow spectators to attend major sporting events.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 10th May 2021.
© 2021 Beaufort Investment. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - High and Dry?
It was a busy week that saw the US Federal Reserve meet to discuss monetary policy. The expectation was for a steady hand on the tiller, and they did not disappoint. Monetary policy is to remain static, with interest rates at historically low levels and the quantitative easing programme at historically high levels.
It was stressed by Chair Jerome Powell that this was not the time to be talking about scaling back bond buying. However, there was an upgrade to the outlook for the US economy. Continued progress on vaccinations, improving indicators of economic activity, and a strengthening in employment, all led the Federal Reserve to update their rhetoric. Single words matter and in March they expressed pandemic risks as “considerable”, and this word was removed in their recent commentary.
To underline the outlook for the US, the country’s official economic data was released showing an annualised growth rate of 6.4% for the first three months of 2021. Growth data typically takes a month to be collated and calculated, so it is always busy the month after the end of the quarter. The continuing level of stimulus and easing of lockdown restrictions have given a boost to the recovery. Despite the speedy upturn, President Joe Biden continues to put pressure on Congress to approve his expanding agenda.
Having now passed 100 days as President, the volume of stimulus that he wants to approve continues to rise. In March, the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Act was passed, now we have the $2.3 trillion American Jobs Plan, which has been designed to upgrade the US’s failing infrastructure, and the $1.8 trillion American Families Plan, which looks to improve workers’ benefits.
The obvious risk, with such stimulative monetary and fiscal policies in place, is that the US economy could overheat. This does increase the likelihood of a spike to inflation levels, albeit short-lived, and would demand an appropriate policy response. This is something we are keeping a close eye on.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the Eurozone slid into a double-dip recession. The output in the first three months of 2021 dropped, as the weight of continued lockdown measures and a stuttering vaccine programme left them lagging behind other developed economies. The -0.6% fall for the first quarter followed a -0.7% drop for the last quarter of 2020 creating a technical recession for the Eurozone. This backdrop demonstrates why we are currently underweight in European equities.
In the UK, consumers are embracing the reduced lockdown measures, particularly at pubs, which has seen craft and premium beers being added to the growing list of items that are hitting supply constraints. Do not underestimate the power of pent-up demand, supported by substantial savings, that we have witnessed during this lockdown.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 4th May 2021.
© 2021 Beaufort Investment. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - Biden’s Decisive Decade
It was a volatile week for equities, but one which pretty much came out flat for the overall MSCI Global Equity Index, though the UK equity market, FTSE All Share, pulled back -0.98%. On Friday US markets bounced back, after sliding on Thursday, on a report that Biden was looking to raise Capital Gains Tax. Stocks whipsawed this week with rising coronavirus cases, mixed economic data and corporate earnings.
The week ended with US President Joe Biden’s climate change summit. The event, meant to demonstrate America’s return to the stage as a climate leader, garnered only modest pledges from attendees despite Biden’s promise of a monumental 50% cut in US emissions, declaring “this is the decisive decade” for tackling climate change. The important point appears to be everyone pulling together. Biden’s administration is focused on commitments from banks and private businesses to help fight the accelerating climate crisis. Four of the biggest US banks on Wall Street – Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, JP Morgan & Citigroup, have pledged $6 trillion in sustainable finance. The billions of dollars they will save in taxes is probably one of the reasons for such grand generosity.
In the developed world the infection rate from the pandemic continues to fall steadily, as the vaccine continues to be rolled out. Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine was finally put back into action in the US. However, in India, the pandemic continues to spiral out of control. On Friday, the nation reported 332,730 new infections, yet another global record. Hospitals are overwhelmed and turning patients away, with the country turning to mass cremations for the thousands dying each day. Incredibly tragic news and one that says we are not out of the woods yet.
Last week also proved a volatile week for Bitcoin, its worst week in months. The notoriously volatile cryptocurrency hit a high of $64,870 on 14th April, but a fresh bout of selling on Friday drove it down nearly -8% to $47,525. It keeps getting worse for the $35 billion Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which is trading at a significant discount to the value of the underlying digital assets it owns. It has lost nearly a fifth of Its value since last Friday, and Wall Street analysts are warning of further pain to follow. An area of the market with lots of focus and hype, but an area we have left well alone.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 26th April 2021.
© 2021 Beaufort Investment. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - The Beer Garden Boom
Global markets continued chugging along last week, with the MSCI All Country Index of global stocks returning +0.8% in GBP. A notable leader was the UK Equity market, which returned +1.5% as measured by the FTSE All Share Index. We continue to believe that the UK market could have significant room to run, having been neglected by global investors for many years. The re-opening of the UK economy continues apace, as borne out in Google’s mobility data. The less scientific measure of how difficult it is to book a pub garden right now, also supports this hypothesis.
Another interesting dataset we have observed is the excess savings accumulated by households during the pandemic. UK households are second only to the US in foregone consumption, at an estimated 10% of GDP. This compares to 6% for the world as a whole, 6.2% in Germany and 5.5% in France. As these savings are spent in the coming months, we expect this to give significant support to domestically-focused UK stocks. This also supports our view that Sterling Fixed Income remains unattractive, as a revival in economic growth is likely to lead to higher interest rates which are a negative for bonds.
Other global markets are a very mixed bag in terms of how attractive or unattractive they are to us right now. We have written many times in the past that elements of the US Equity market exhibit stretched valuations and heroic growth assumptions, although we have recently been adding small-cap value exposure which should benefit from the strong rebound in the world’s largest economy. Certain Fixed Income markets are also once again looking as if they are “priced for perfection” with the extra compensation paid to investors for holding investment grade and high yield corporate debt now roughly back to all-time lows. We think selectivity and remaining active in Fixed Income markets will be critical to client outcomes from this point.
The World In A Week – Nul Points
Global equity markets ended the week marginally negative, but under the bonnet there was a high degree of volatility over the five trading days, with the S&P 500 in the US down over -2.5% at one point, only to bounce back strongly and end a smidge below its all-time high.
Much of the volatility was driven early in the week by the crypto meltdown. We saw the Chinese government continue to crack down on cryptocurrencies, banning financial services and payment companies from providing services related to crypto by stopping trading, clearing, and settling via crypto. The Government said, “cryptocurrencies are not supported by real value” and warned private investors against speculative trading. At the same time, we saw Elon Musk, owner of Tesla, perform a 180-degree U-turn on the asset class, suspending vehicle purchases via Bitcoin, citing climate change concerns as the reason. Furthermore, there is the threat of a possible tax clampdown in the US. As a store of wealth or viable form of money, these headwinds are causing the huge degrees of volatility we are seeing and must really make the most ardent supporters’ waiver.
There has been speculation whirling for a while, but Amazon is now reported to be making a $9bn bid for MGM, which might put a fresh shine on some old classics. Amazon has over 200 million Prime subscribers, of which 175 million stream Prime Video, according to CEO Jeff Bezos. MGM has a huge back catalogue of content covering over 4,000 titles with household names such as James Bond, The Hobbit and Rocky. A profitable and expanding franchise for the Amazon empire.
Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) was also evident in the UK, with private equity firm KKR bidding £2bn for John Laing, the UK infrastructure company. M&A is a theme we have seen at play in the UK market over the last few months as UK assets look cheap and offer good value to potential buyers, one of the reasons that Beaufort Investment decided to increase its UK equity allocation from neutral to overweight back in February.
Finally, coming to the biggest shock or non-shock of the week – the UK’s entry scored ‘nul points’ in the Eurovision song contest leaving the UK, the Brexit bad boys, left out in the cold….. Hardly market moving, but all good harmless fun, watched by millions across the continent.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 24th May 2021.
© 2021 Beaufort Investment. All rights reserved.