What is sudden wealth? How to deal with an overnight windfall
Sudden wealth is a growing issue as older generations begin to pass on significant estates to their loved ones. The phrase “sudden wealth” is likely to conjure images of winning the lottery or inheriting a large sum from a mysterious great aunt.
However, more likely than not, it pertains to people whose parents have quietly squirreled away a nest egg through property, pensions and other assets over a lifetime. The crux is when these people pass away – they may have failed to put in place an inheritance plan, or even to properly explain to beneficiaries what the contents of a portfolio are and how much they’re worth. This can create huge issues for their beneficiaries as unmitigated tax liabilities can force people to sell assets they may not be prepared to deal with.
It can create other issues such as people becoming “accidental landlords” without really knowing what they’re taking on. There can also be issues where someone suddenly finds themselves with large sums in their bank accounts but has little idea of what the most responsible thing is to do with that money.
This is what makes intergenerational financial planning absolutely critical to protect those beneficiaries from a surprise inheritance.
Intergenerational financial planning
With older generations accruing larger amounts of wealth the potential for this wealth to pass on to their children - or even grandchildren - increases the risks associated with that wealth. It is therefore critical for a family to plan together for the outcomes of inheritance. A child is going to struggle if they inherit a substantial portfolio of assets from their parent with little clue of what those assets are, how they work and how to manage them. Dealing with an overnight windfall such as this can be emotionally extremely difficult and can lead to major mistakes that unravel years of sensible management.
While basic practices such as having a will in place are key, involving children in the decision-making process of how that estate planning is managed is really important, as is ensuring they understand what the assets are and how much they’re worth. How that wealth trickles down to younger generations will impact the tax that they pay, and how to structure that wealth over the long term. It can also colour decisions you make early in retirement in regard to which assets you draw upon to fund your retirement. For instance – gifting is an effective way to mitigate inheritance tax (IHT), but if your wealth is largely bound up in property this might not be the most effective way to pass on money – particularly if it leaves you cash poor.
Ensuring your loved ones fully understand your wealth portfolio will also prevent them from making mistakes once it passes to them. An adviser can help structure the process and talk to everyone involved in order to prepare them for what is to come. Intergenerational wealth planning takes care of the wider picture and how it can affect multiple generations, their future plans and their own wealth. It is an essential process for anyone with assets to pass on.
How to deal with sudden wealth
For those who have found themselves with a sudden windfall, be it through parents who didn’t communicate their plans, a lottery win, or a mysterious wealthy relative, the most important first step is to speak to a financial adviser.
An adviser will help you to understand the potential tax implications, the best way to structure what you have received in order to set it up successfully for life and mitigate any issues with your own wealth, and how to deal with the emotional implications of such a large windfall.
The temptation might be to go on a spending splurge. While buying that car you always wanted or taking the trip of a life time isn’t necessarily bad, it is essential to ensure that you can enjoy the fruits of some of that wealth while also making it work for you and last in the long term.
What are the Mansion House pension reforms and will they affect your wealth?
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt announced pension reforms - dubbed the “Mansion House Reforms” - in early July.
According to the Treasury, the reforms are set to unlock an additional £75 billion in investment for high-growth British businesses by utilising the cash in the nation’s pension pots. How will this affect your pension on an individual level? This depends on how proactive you are with the management of your savings pots.
Mansion House Reforms in practice
The reforms announced by Hunt are looking to redirect money in UK pensions towards investments that might help to boost the economy. The UK has the largest pension market in Europe with around £2.5 trillion in assets. Through the reforms, the nine largest pension providers in the UK have agreed to increase investment in unlisted equities – i.e., companies not represented in the stock market – from around 1% of assets to 5%. The Government says this could potentially unlock around £50 billion in extra investment cash for fast-growing firms in the UK as a result.
Chancellor Hunt commented in the announcement: “British pensioners should benefit from British business success. By unlocking investment, we will boost retirement income by over £1,000 a year for typical earner over the course of their career.
“This also means more investment in our most promising companies, driving growth in the UK.” The reforms are backed by a wide range of businesses from JPMorgan to Octopus and the ScaleUp Institute.
How will my pension be affected?
The reforms are a potentially large shift in how investment capital in the UK, through pensions, is used. Major pension providers will look to tweak the allocations of their default investment funds to match the 5% unlisted equity threshold. However, it isn’t compulsory to have your pension pot invested in this way. The tricky thing here is your workplace pension might be one of the signatories to the scheme, and the choices beyond default fund might be limited. Members of the compact include: Aegon, Aviva, L&G, Mercer, M&G, Nest, Phoenix, Scottish Widows and Smart Pension. These default funds might not be the best place for your portfolio depending on your circumstances. It is really important to speak to an adviser to decide on the best course of action for any pension pot as this shift in investment and risk outlook can have significant implications.
Unlisted equities tend to be riskier than listed companies, which tend only to be on the stock market thanks to a proven track record. They are also less liquid which makes it harder for investment funds to sell assets if they require cash. If you are closer to retirement these kinds of investments might not be the right choice for you, especially if you are looking to protect your capital rather than going for growth.
Either way, get in touch to discuss your options.
Government weighs abolishing income tax benefit for inherited pensions
The Government could be set to scrap a valuable income tax benefit relating to the inheritance of pensions.
The tax perk allows someone under the age of 75 to bequeath an uncrystallised (i.e., still invested) defined contribution (DC) pension pot without any income tax liability when the beneficiary draws income from the pot. However, the proposal from HMRC recommends that from April, untouched pensions should no longer be exempt from income tax when inherited. This means anyone who inherits the pot would be liable to pay their marginal rate of income tax on whatever they draw down. The announcement follows a consultation around the tax treatment of inherited pensions and relates to wider reforms around the lifetime allowance (LTA).
How does this affect your wealth?
Pensions are one of the most efficient ways to plan for inheritance, thanks largely to the generous income tax benefit which could now be axed. The Government scrapped the pension LTA of £1,073,100 in April this year, making maximising pension tax benefits a much more attractive option for efficient tax and wealth planning. The removal of the LTA abolished 55% taxation on lump sums withdrawn over the LTA, plus a 25% charge on regular withdrawals. However, the Labour Party has committed to reversing the change should it win the next General Election, which is currently pencilled in for December 2024, putting pension planning in doubt.
With house price growth over the past decade, many families that would never have expected to face an IHT bill are now being dragged into the frame for it. The latest figures from HMRC suggest an extra 50,000 families will be dragged into paying inheritance tax (IHT) by 2028. This is largely thanks to the ongoing frozen IHT threshold of £325,000 which has been in place over a decade, with an extra £175,000 allowance for main residence. Combined with a partner, the total tax-free allowance can be as much as £1 million.
Plans to abolish the pension inheritance income tax benefit have been recommended for April 2024, but are not set in stone as of yet and there has been no legislation forthcoming from the government. While it is important to be aware of the potential change, by no means should it totally change a wealth plan just yet. The benefit also only impacts the pension pot of someone who dies under the age of 75. It is important to consider factors such as life expectancy, health and lifestyle as this benefit might not ultimately be that relevant.
Overall, it is key to be aware of the potential benefits and pitfalls in wealth and retirement planning, and to prepare your portfolio for the best outcome possible, no matter the inclinations of the government of the day.
If you would like to discuss the pensions inheritance issue further or anything else relating to your wealth planning, don’t hesitate to get in touch.
£150k cryptocurrency fraud warning: key ways to protect your money from scams
Gloucestershire Police have issued a cryptocurrency scam warning after a victim was defrauded out of £150,000.
Staff at a bank in Cheltenham contacted police after a customer tried to transfer money to an account flagged as fraudulent. The customer, in their 60s, thought they were investing in a cryptocurrency scheme, but it was little more than a scam. The victim had been communicating with the scammers via WhatsApp.
Cryptocurrencies are generally unregulated financial assets that fall outside of the normal boundaries of financial markets. The best-known cryptocurrencies are infamous for their volatility and extraordinary price swings, while countless incidences of scams take place in so called “rug pulls” where someone touts the investment case of a particular token and encourages large numbers of investors to deposit money. Once the scammer has accrued enough money, they “pull the rug” and disappear with the funds, leaving investors with worthless digital tokens.
Spot the signs
Scammers are often highly sophisticated and use a web of digital tools to ensnare their victims. Fortunately, there are basic rules to have in your mind to protect yourself from fraud.
- Don’t give any heed to cold approaches. This could be via phone, email or any other communication platform such as social media. A random cold approach is a big red flag. Indeed, the Government is currently working to make all cold calling illegal.
- Beware too good to be true figures. A good signal that something could be a scam is a promise that is too good to be true. This includes guaranteeing a financial return on an investment, promising outlandishly high returns or any other hype around the future (and unknowable) performance of an asset. This is particularly common with cryptocurrencies.
- Verify their identities. If someone calls you claiming to be from a provider you use, such as your bank, pension provider or other firm, then thank them for contacting you but tell them you will get back in touch independently. Hang up the phone and find the contact number for the company and verify whether it really was them calling.
- Don’t get rushed. This is a classic tactic from scammers, they want to rush you into handing over information as quickly as possible because they don’t want you to stop and think whether this “product” they’re offering is actually real or if it is just a scam.
- Don’t trust websites you find on Google. Website cloning and URL spoofing is a rising problem. Although Google is the first port of call for finding a company’s website for many of us, scammers routinely buy advertising to appear at the top of results with cloned websites. Make sure the site you are clicking on doesn’t have odd spelling. Scammers will go as far as putting Cyrillic lettering in names to confuse search engines.
- Check the FCA register. As a rule, you should only ever engage with financial firms listed on the FCA register. This is perhaps the best way to ensure the legitimacy of a firm, and to find out contact information or website addresses. Although it’s not foolproof – firms get struck off the register for a variety of reasons – it is the best way to ensure the company you deal with is legitimate.
- Speak to an adviser. When making financial decisions around investing, it is really important to not just rely on your own gut feeling about an idea. Speaking to an adviser and getting the right help when making decisions can prevent disaster and will help you to make the best decisions possible in the circumstances.
The World In A Week - Nothing to See Here
Written by Chris Ayton
It was a tough week for global equity markets with the MSCI All Country World Index -2.7% in Sterling terms. Bonds also declined with the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index -0.3% in GBP hedged terms. Credit and high yield indices were down even more.
Expectations of a huge post COVID bounce in China’s economy have proved fruitless with it instead showing increasing signs of strain and, within China’s property market in particular, clear signs of distress. On the back of large property developer, Country Garden, recently missing coupon payments on two US Dollar denominated bonds, last week saw further news of some retail wealth management products that are exposed to the Chinese property market failing to make scheduled payouts. Youth unemployment (16-24 year olds) also reached such a worryingly high level (over 20%) that authorities concluded the data “needed improving” and the National Bureau of Statistics decided to stop reporting it. Clearly nothing to see here! This challenging backdrop led to the People’s Bank of China unexpectedly cutting a benchmark interest rate by the biggest margin since the start of the COVID pandemic and further stimulus is expected to be needed to get China back on track to hit its GDP growth targets.
In the UK, inflation came down from an annual rate of 7.9% in June to 6.8% in July aided by lower gas and electricity prices. However, inflation stripping out food and energy was unchanged and combined with the news that UK wage growth hit approximately 8% is maintaining pressure on the Bank of England to continue on its path of increasing interest rates to cool the economy. This is despite retail sales in the UK declining by a higher than expected 1.2% in July, suggesting the past rate rises are already starting to take effect.
The UK housing market was also a hot topic of discussion last week. Pressured by a lack of rental supply and landlords facing higher mortgage repayments, UK residential rents rose by an annual rate of 5.3% in the year to July, the highest rise on record. House prices, however, have been faring less well as the Nationwide Building Society reported that UK house prices fell at an annual rate of 3.8 per cent in July, the largest decline since 2009. However, in a small piece of brighter news it was reported that for the fourth week in a row, UK banks and building societies were set to reduce interest rates for fixed rate mortgages, potentially signalling that the slowdown in mortgage applications is starting to lead to some competition for the business that remains.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 21st August 2023.
© 2023 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - A mix of opportunities and challenges
Written by Ilaria Massei
Fitch Ratings downgraded the credit rating of US government debt from AAA to AA+, citing governance and fiscal challenges. The news encouraged some investors to take profits from their investments and pushed the S&P500 down to -2.3% in local currency terms last week. Additionally, the Labor Department reported moderate job growth in July, indicating that the economy is cooling but only slowly.
In the eurozone, annual inflation remained well above the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target, although it declined slightly from the previous month to 5.3%. The second-quarter GDP data indicated overall economic expansion, but Germany's economy remained stagnant, and Italy experienced a contraction. This highlights the difficulty faced by the ECB in setting a single monetary policy for a group of quite different underlying economies.
The Bank of England raised its key interest rate to 5.25% and expressed the intention to keep rates higher to control inflation. Consequently, the UK housing market continued to weaken, with declining house prices and a decrease in the value of net mortgage lending.
Elsewhere, the Chinese Government introduced measures to boost consumption by removing restrictions in sectors like autos, real estate, and services. With new home sales also continuing to be weak, the People's Bank of China also pledged support for the real estate market, although policymakers still want to avoid the excessive speculation that was previously rampant within this segment of the Chinese economy.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of [07/08/2023].
© 2023 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
HMRC hikes tax late payment charge to 7%
HMRC issued 540,000 late payment penalties in 2022 according to data from Thomson Reuters.
The total value of fines issued by the Government tax collector hit £187 million in the same year.
This comes as the Bank of England base rate continues to increase, sending late payment charges up with it. HMRC now charges 7% to those who fail to file their tax returns on time as it raises charges in lockstep with the central bank.
In 2022 interest charges were just 3.25%, less than half the current level. The changes came into effect from May for both quarterly and non-quarterly late payments.
Anyone in the UK who earns money being self-employed, is a partner in a business partnership, earns over £100,000 a year, or earns income from savings, pensions, investments, dividends or property rentals, is liable to fill out a self-assessment tax return for each year they earn in.
There are exceptions to these if the level of income is below the threshold for paying tax, or if money is sheltered in tax-efficient accounts such as ISAs.
Tax deadlines
Tax self-assessment is a foundational part of managing earnings. While minimising tax liabilities in the first place is key, just making sure those liabilities are met each year is essential too.
The tax return is relevant to the past tax year, so the current assessment deadlines pertain to the tax year 2022-23 which finished on 5 April 2023.
The current deadlines are as follows:
- 5 October 2023: register for self-assessment
- Midnight 31 October 2023: paper tax return deadline
- Midnight 31 January 2024: online tax return deadline
- Midnight 31 January 2024: pay the tax you owe
There are some caveats to this though. For example:
- There’s a second payment deadline on 31 July if you make advance payments, known as “payments on account.”
- You’ll need to submit an online tax return by 30 December if you want HMRC to collect tax from wages or pension automatically.
- If you have a company as a partner, with an accounting date between 1 February and 5 April, the online return deadline is 12 months from the accounting date while paper return is nine months.
Time to Pay
Those who find themselves behind on tax returns and facing penalties should get in touch with HMRC to discuss a ‘time to pay’ deal as quickly as possible to prevent further charges, or even prosecution, from arising.
Time to Pay plans soared during the pandemic years, with 21,000 taxpayers making the arrangement in 2021-22. These plans allow taxpayers to set up 12-month payment schedules for their tax liabilities. Taxpayers were given extra time to file during the pandemic, thanks to administrative delays.
With rigorous wealth management and support in place from financial advisers, this shouldn’t happen. However, it is essential to be aware of the deadlines, your potential liabilities, and how to prepare your wealth to meet those liabilities smoothly.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 14th June 2023.
How to prepare for an active retirement
Retirement is no longer the sudden process it once was. Making sure you’re financially prepared for your golden years is essential to get the most of out of this time of life.
A few big trends have emerged among older workers in the past thirty years. According to Government data, the number of over 50s in work has increased significantly, from 57.2% in the mid-1990s to 72.5% in 2019.
The average age at which someone exits the labour market has also changed, rising to 65.3 years for men from 63.1 and 64.3 years for women, up from 60.6.
However, the statistics don’t illustrate how much the nature of retirement has changed in recent times. That is to say, people are now less likely to just down tools one day and decide “ok, finished, now what?”
Instead, it is becoming increasingly common for older workers to reduce hours, try new ideas or projects. Put simply, retirement isn’t quite what it used to be!
This has come from two directions, partly from pressure caused by State Pension age uplift, but also from those who have been able to plan effectively giving them more options in later years.
This flexibility allows people to pursue more options later in life and live a more active retirement.
So, what are the key things to consider when you’re looking to work less and enjoy life more? Here are some key considerations.
Income needs
The first point to begin with is looking at your current income, between yourself and your partner if you have one.
The ‘rule of thumb’ is you’ll need one third less income during retirement than working years. However, this is mostly predicated upon not needing to pay a mortgage any more so may or may not be the case depending on your situation.
You’ll also want to consider what kind of retirement you want to have. Do you want to travel the world? Or are you happy tending to your garden and taking care of grandchildren? Either choices are perfectly laudable but come with potentially different cost implications.
Debt reduction
Have you got any debts? While short-term debt such as credit cards should generally be avoided, personal loans for big purchases such as cars, or mortgages, are not uncommon. It is worth considering if you want to prioritise clearing some of these so as to remove them as an obstacle to beginning an assured retirement.
Cashflow planning
Cashflow planning is a critical aspect of looking at when and how you can retire comfortably. Wealth is often structured through key assets such as investments, but these are often distributed in pensions, ISAs, property, and other vehicles.
You might have a good amount in all three, but planning for accessing that cash takes some consideration, particularly when it comes to looking at how far it will go in the long term.
Cashflow modelling can help you to understand how much you’ll be left with depending on what age you stop earning a work income, and how much you can expect from your various funds. It will also incorporate other key income sources such as State Pension, which can prove valuable later in life.
Wealth structure
The structure of wealth is really important here too and will dictate how that cashflow is able to be managed. Pensions typically form the bedrock of a portfolio and come with certain tax implications that need careful attention.
The 25% tax-free lump sum can be an extraordinarily useful tool for example, but deciding if you should draw down on an ISA or pension first, or even continue to contribute more for longer, is difficult to get right.
The structure of your wealth will also have a big implication on future tax liabilities and needs to be carefully considered.
Investment glidepath
Finally, within that structure you’ll need to consider how much of your wealth is invested. Typically, when you’re in working years, you’ll be invested in assets that bring better long-term returns such as equities.
However, as you near retirement you’ll want to consider what is called a “glidepath”, whereby your asset mix moves to a more conservative footing in order to minimise portfolio volatility. This is to prevent a situation where you’re ready to retire, but owing to macroeconomic factors, your portfolio isn’t!
Ultimately, the best preparation for an active retirement is to plan well ahead and have a clear idea of what your goals are. However, it is also fine if you’re not 100% sure. We spend the best part of our adult lives in work, so leaving it can be a daunting prospect.
To make sure you’re on the right path, don’t hesitate to get in touch with us to discuss your options.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 14th June 2023.
The importance of generational financial planning
Families in the UK are set to transfer around £5.5 trillion worth of assets over the next 30 years, according to data from the Kings Court Trust.
Not only is this an extraordinary shift in the wealth of the nation, but it throws up a myriad of issues that can only be solved through careful financial planning.
There are many things to consider when it comes to your own generational financial planning. Not only is it about passing wealth on in the most efficient way, but it also matters that your children and even grandchildren are given the best head start possible.
Generational financial planning is an essential aspect of overall financial planning. You need to think about passing on money, and what questions to consider before you set a plan in motion.
Understanding how much of your wealth you’ll need while you’re alive is a critical starting point. Then thinking about which aspects you’d like to give away at death, and which you could begin to give earlier will help you to define your ultimate goals.
Gifting unpacked
Gifting is the biggest variable possibility when it comes to generational financial planning. There is a myriad of rules and allowances when it comes to gifting, pertaining exclusively to the mitigation of inheritance tax (IHT).
At a basic level, you’re allowed to gift money, household, and personal goods such as furniture or jewellery, property, stocks and shares or even unlisted shares. However, how much and when you gift them makes a significant difference to your potential IHT liability.
For cash gifts you can make £3,000-worth of gifts a year tax-free, known as the ‘annual exemption.’ You can give it all to one person or divide it between several. It is also possible to carry the allowance forward for one tax year.
The £3,000 annual allowance can be used to pay into a pension for your child or a junior ISA (JISA). While classed as a ‘potentially exempt transfer’ you’ll need to live for seven years (covered more below) to avoid liability if you go over this limit of contributions – not impossible when the annual JISA limit is £9,000.
Paying into these kinds of accounts has the benefit of extra long-term planning for your children’s future financial health and can mitigate your worries in older age as they grow, have careers and families of their own.
You can also make gifts of up to £250 per person each year with no overall limit, as long as that person hasn’t been included in the above £3,000 of gifting. This is called the ‘small gifts allowance.’
If your child is getting married, a £5,000 gift is permissible, or £2,500 for a grandchild. You can give up to £1,000 tax free to anyone else you know getting married.
Regular payments to others are also permissible with no limit. However, the caveat here is that you must be able to meet your regular living costs while making such payments and it must come from your regular monthly income. These are known as “normal expenditure out of income.”
You can give such regular payments to help a child pay their rent, pay into a savings account for a child under 18 or even give financial support to an elderly relative. These can be made over and above the £3,000 annual allowance. Trusts are also possible but can be subject to income tax on withdrawal.
Seven-year rule
Beyond this is a really important rule, known as the ‘seven-year rule.’ Essentially you can give away any part of your estate and not face IHT on the assets, but you have to live for seven years after making the transfer.
As the seven-year deadline approaches, the tax liability also reduces. Between three and four years it’s 32%, four to five years it’s 24%, five to six years it’s 16% and six to seven years it’s 8%.
What is really important with the seven-year rule is taking into consideration your health and life expectancy. If you’d like to give something major to a loved one, such as property or even a share portfolio, then the sooner you do it the better.
This might of course not be the right route to go down as a portion of your wealth can be inherited tax-free anyway. A financial adviser can help you make a decision around this on the best way forward.
Ultimately, when planning for intergenerational wealth there is much to consider. While the challenges that come with this might seem daunting, with planning it is possible to set yourself and your loved ones up for the most successful outcome possible.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 14th June 2023.
The World In A Week - Fly Me To The Moon
Written by Shane Balkham
Last week was naturally focused on the opening speeches at the Jackson Hole symposium, an annual gathering of policymakers from around the world, to discuss topical financial events and trends. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City was hosting as normal, with the theme for this year’s event being “Structural Shifts in the Global Economy.”
As many suspected, there were no surprises coming from this year’s conference. Dusting down much of 2022’s speech, Jerome Powell, the Chair of the US Federal Reserve, reiterated the fight against inflation, with an emphasis on risk-management in restoring price stability across the globe. This could mean we are close to peak rates in many developed economies, but it could also mean leaving rates on pause for longer to ensure the battle has been won.
Winning the battle for dominance of supplying the burgeoning demand for AI systems was Nvidia, which became the first semiconductor company to pass $1 trillion market cap. The chip manufacturer gave another strong quarterly revenue forecast as orders for its AI processors, adept at handling the heavy workloads required by AI, surged allowing it to create a market leading position.
Forecasts do get revised, and the US gave a downward revision to the March jobs’ forecast that was originally reported. It was initially estimated that around 300,000 fewer jobs were created, which could be good news for central banks, as they would like to see a slightly weaker labour market. The balance between fighting inflation and supporting economic growth is becoming increasingly difficult. This is starting to show in the US retail sector, where excess consumer savings built up during the pandemic are perceived to be running out as the interest rate hikes are starting to pinch. Department stores are seeing a fall in sales and a worsening in their credit card delinquencies.
Something that cannot be ignored for too long is Russia. Last week saw the Wagner mercenary group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin killed, as the plane he was on exploded killing all that were aboard. Putin’s comment on the crash saw him describe Prigozhin as “a man with a complicated fate.”
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 29th August .2023.
© 2023 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.