Government under pressure to act over cost-of-living crisis: here’s what it might do
British households are facing an unprecedented cost-of-living crisis in 2022.
A harsh combination of factors have come together to make the business over everyday life more expensive for every household.
The Government, as a result, has come under considerable pressure to act to soften the blow of rising prices, energy bills and other areas of life which have become more costly.
But what has it done so far to alleviate the issue? And what could it still do to act?
The Chancellor Rishi Sunak has a Spring Statement coming on 23 March, which traditionally is fairly light on new policies, and generally contains updates on the UK’s economic performance, and the translating tax revenues for the Treasury.
But in recent days the Chancellor has been called upon to implement a full emergency Budget to tackle the cost-of-living crisis.
While he hasn’t at the time of writing gone so far, he has taken some measures to ease the pain for households.
What has the Government done so far?
- Energy bill help
On 3 February energy regulator Ofgem announced an unprecedented hike in the energy bill cap. The regulator rose the ceiling of what energy firms could charge customers on a Standard Variable Rate (SVR) by 54% – to £1,971 per year.
As a result, on the same day the Chancellor announced a package of measures to soften this hike for households.
The first of these measures is an energy bill rebate. This comes in the form of a £200 discount on energy bills, which households will get in October this year. This will then have to be paid back by paying an extra £40 a year on bills for the next five years.
The second measure the Chancellor Rishi Sunak has introduced is a £150 Council Tax Rebate for any households living in Band A or Band D properties. This will come through for those households in April, and will not need to be paid back.
The Government is also increasing the number of households which qualify for the Warm Homes Discount, which means some three million families will soon be eligible.
- Rate hikes
The second major step taken by the Government (albeit an independent arm of the State) is from the Bank of England, which is beginning the process of hiking interest rates.
The Bank Rate has been set at 0.1% since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. Prior to this it was at 0.75%.
But the Bank of England surprised most analysts by hiking the rate to 0.25% in December, then again on 3 February – the first time it has done a back-to-back rate hike since 2004.
Although the absolute level of the Bank Rate is still low, it is a signal of intent from monetary policymakers to attempt to quell inflation.
By raising rates, the Bank of England makes it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, and more attractive to save. By doing this it hopes demand for goods and services will reduce, thereby slowing price rises.
In practical terms for households, this means debts such as mortgages and credit cards – unless fixed on a guaranteed rate – will get more expensive.
Investment markets now predict that the Bank of England could keep hiking rates for the rest of the year, at least four more times, with a rate of around 1.25% by 2023.
What could the Government still do?
- Energy bill VAT cut
Since leaving the European Union, the Government has been at pains to show off what it has been doing with its newfound post-Brexit powers.
One of the major policy levers that it has taken back from Brussels is the ability to set its own VAT rates – which were set centrally by the European Commission.
As a result, with the energy crisis, many MPs have called upon the Government to slash the VAT rate on energy bills.
The Government argues that doing so wouldn’t target savings in the right way, instead it would be giving a tax break to wealthier households.
But with the volatile political climate at the moment, it is still a lever that Sunak could reach for were it to become pressing to act again to help households.
- National Insurance climb down
The real elephant in the room during all the discussion around the cost-of-living crisis is the fact that the Government has already pushed through plans to hike National Insurance – dubbed a tax on working by critics.
The 1.25% hike was passed through Parliament last year, before the reality of the crisis took hold. But now the policy is gaining increasing criticism, considering the pressure households are under.
Many MPs in the Conservative Party, despite having voted the policy through, are now vocally calling for it to be reversed. While Rishi Sunak has so far resisted, a change in the political climate could soon make it untenable.
With the tax hike, earners on £30,000 a year will face an extra £255 to pay to HMRC, while someone earning £50,000 will pay an extra £505.
Dividend tax is also rising from April 2022. The basic rate dividend tax will be 8.75% up from of 7.5%. Higher rate dividend taxpayers will pay 33.75% up from 32.5%, and additional rate dividend taxpayers will pay 39.35%, up from 38.1%.
What are the inheritance tax implications for unmarried couples?
Marriage, once a staple social institution, is largely in decline. For those who choose to cohabit long-term with their partners, this creates tax and inheritance implications.
The number of unmarried cohabiting couples has risen considerably in the 21st Century. Between 2002 and 2020 (the most recent numbers available) unmarried cohabitation rose by around 78%, according to the ONS.
While in social terms, deciding against marriage or civil partnership is a perfectly normal part of modern society, it can create complications for those couples when it comes to financial planning, inheritance and taxes.
The purpose of this article is to explore those issues, and not make a judgement about the social choices!
Before going any further, it is important to clarify a common misconception. For legal purposes, there is no such thing as a “common law partner.” It is a very commonly held misconception about cohabitation. This extends to the point where some companies will allow you to pick “common law partner” when filling out forms. But it simply does not exist as a legal concept.
That being said, here are some primary things to think about if you are in a long-term cohabiting couple, and are concerned about the implications for your joint finances in the event a partner passes away.
Banking
Perhaps not considered in the same vein as broader inheritance, there is a basic legal issue which arises for couples that cohabit but are unmarried or civil partnered.
Many couples choose to do their banking through joint accounts, but others may choose to keep things separate. This can create a significant issue if one were to die, as the other would have no right of access to their accounts, and therefore money.
Such a situation can create ancillary headaches with issues such as how household bills, mortgage or rent payments get made. This can be rectified with some admin work, but bigger issues can arise if one partner held cash that the other then needs to access so that they don’t fall behind on those bills.
Property
Property ownership can be clear cut, but only if it is arranged correctly when purchased. If one partner owns a property in their name alone, the surviving partner has no clear right of ownership or habitation if the owner dies.
While broadly it falls under inheritance rules and will be governed by a document such as a Will, there is an easy way to protect against the problem, by making changes to the paperwork to incorporate both partners into ownership – either as joint owners or owners in common.
Common ownership can be a more practical solution, were the couple to split up, as essentially, they both own an agreed share of the asset. Joint ownership can be more complicated, because it means both parties share ownership of 100% of the asset.
Inheritance Tax
While the financial perks of marriage are fairly limited these days, there is one major benefit to being legally attached to your partner.
Inheritance rules make clear that married, or civil partnered spouses, enjoy far more protection and allowance against IHT than unmarried couples.
Everyone has an IHT allowance of £325,000-worth of assets. This is called the Nil Rate Band (NRB). IHT is payable at 40% of any assets above this level.
The Residential Nil Rate Band (RNRB) adds an extra £175,000 on top of the NRB when exclusively accounting for the value of the person’s main home. However, the rules are that in order to use this allowance, the person who died must have left their home, or a share of it, to their direct descendants.
For a married couple there is a spousal exemption when one of the partners dies. All the assets held by one can be transferred tax free to the other. Then, when the final partner dies, the entire sum of both people’s NRB and RNRB are combined to give a final allowance. This is potentially worth £1 million when taken in total.
Alternatively, for an unmarried couple, were one to die, the other would be liable for IHT on any assets they inherit worth above the other partner’s combined IHT exemption. Worse, the IHT will be payable before the assets can be transferred, potentially leaving the surviving partner with a hefty tax bill – one which they may have to sell their home to pay.
Finally, when the surviving partner dies, IHT is due again for anything over their personal allowances. This means those assets will potentially be taxed twice if their value still exceeds the allowances.
How to mitigate the issue of unmarried IHT?
It would be easy to suggest getting married or civil partnered would be the clear and easy way to mitigate the issues mentioned above. Ultimately this is true as at a stroke it takes away the issue of allowances, and gives special right of ownership and access to banking and property.
But in legal and social terms it may not be quite so easy, and that is understandable.
Having a Lasting Power of Attorney (LPA) and a Last Will and Testament (Will) in place is a great starting point. This will provide clarity on a partner’s inheritance, and their ability to access important resources such as bank accounts in the event of the other’s death.
Even if an unmarried couple has lived together for 50 years, without key documents such as Wills, there is no certainty that they will be the beneficiary of an inheritance. If someone dies intestate, inheritance of their property typically reverts to the nearest blood relative (next of kin), generally a child.
But there are also ways to structure wealth that can mitigate some of the issues, without resorting to tying the knot. If you would like to discuss this issue further don’t hesitate to get in touch with your financial adviser.
£250 work from home tax relief set to end – but still time to claim
A longstanding tax relief for anyone who works from home is set to be axed.
The Government has spent around £500 million giving cash back to workers who have had to stay at home during the pandemic.
Some 4.9 million workers have claimed the allowance since the pandemic began, according to HMRC. The Government has now set its sights on axing the relief as a result of its high cost, with HMRC conducting a review.
However, plans have not yet been confirmed, so for anyone who has worked at home – even for just one day – during the pandemic in the last two years can claim up to £125 per year, or £250 in total.
What is the relief?
Anyone who has to work from home can claim some of their tax back. The relief was introduced in 2003 to help home workers with bills such as internet, electricity, and other expenses they may incur.
For anyone paying the basic rate of income tax the relief is £62.40 per year. For higher rate payers, this rises to £124.80.
How can I claim it?
In order to claim you’ll need identifying documents such as a passport, National Insurance number, or payslips from your work.
You’ll need to go to the Government website, and go through the online process to claim, stating the date when you began to work from home.
The relief will then be paid to you through your normal pay, with up to £250 discounted from your tax bill as a lump sum if you’re claiming for backdated work. Your tax code will change directly with your employer.
There are some stipulations, however. If you’re self-employed or pay tax by self-assessment you cannot claim the allowance, as you must apply for the relief on your return instead.
If you receive expenses from your employer for working from home, this makes you ineligible.
If you’ve always worked from home or if you weren’t obliged to by the pandemic, then you can’t claim either. You can only claim the relief if you didn’t choose to work from home but were told to by your employer.
This is why the cost to the Treasury has ballooned during the pandemic – as millions of workers have probably not been able to work from the office.
That being said, at the start of the pandemic the rules were relaxed so that you only have to show you’ve worked from home for one day to claim the entire year’s sum.
How long do I have left to claim?
While nothing has been made official, it is believed HMRC is actively reviewing the relief with a view to either making it less easy to claim, or shutting it down entirely.
The Chancellor will be making his Spring Statement on 23 March – this is probably the most likely time when the loophole would be announced as closing. Many policies announced at this point tend to come into effect at the end of the tax year on 5 April.
For now however, the scheme is still open and available. If you go online and go through the process, you can still get back a tidy sum for the past two years’ work.
How to spot an investment scam
Investment scams are nothing new, but scammers are becoming more sophisticated than ever.
With the internet and easy movement of money, there are far greater opportunities for a fraudster to part you with your wealth.
In the first half of 2021 alone, financial trade body UK Finance estimates that more than £107 million was lost to investment scams, a 95% rise on losses in the first half of 2020.
When it comes to investment scams, it pays to take a critical eye to almost anything you’re approached with.
And while it is impossible to always be fully alert to these tricks, knowing what they might try is a good way to protect yourself from losing money.
Cold calling
Cold calling is perhaps the go-to for investment scams and is a well-trodden way to swindle money. In the vast majority of cases, if you get a call out of the blue from someone who wants to talk about investments, just hang up.
Indeed, pensions cold calling is now illegal, and has been for some time. Generally if you get a call like this where someone wants to discuss how your pension is invested, it’s a scammer. They are either operating illegally within the UK, or from abroad where the authorities have limited power to stop them.
Even when someone purporting to be from your bank calls to discuss the matter, it is generally advisable to politely end the call and try contacting the institution directly using their customer service line. Chances are it was a scammer who knows who you use for your banking or other financial products.
Cold calling isn’t the only way that scammers will try to contact you. Emails, text messages, letters and social media are all avenues for attack. But cold calling can be one of the most harmful as the fraudsters are often expert verbal manipulators. Take a deep breath and tell them no.
‘Trustworthy’ sponsors
This is a growing issue, especially as a range of mainstream media personalities and outlets are often engaged in combatting scammers, and then are themselves used to target victims.
Perhaps the most famous is Martin Lewis of MoneySavingExpert, who routinely reminds his followers on social media that often his image, or even fake commentary, is used to promote investment scams.
In another recent instance, consumer group Which? found its logo and name being used by scammers to try and push investment scams via email.
The scam involved victims being forwarded to a fraudulent website advertising fixed-rate bonds, something Which? says it would never do. The firm warns that the biggest giveaway in this instance is strange email addresses associated with the email message.
‘Guaranteed’ returns or ‘risk free’
Scammers will use all manner of promises to try and lure you into a fraudulent investment. One of the biggest red flags to watch for is the promise of “guaranteed returns” or “risk-free” investments.
Neither is ever possible when it comes to investment, as all investments carry some form of risk, and the return you can make is generally impossible to fully guarantee.
Look at the level of returns on offer if you aren’t sure. Savings rates are very low at the moment so anything offering high returns for your money is likely a scam.
And anyone promoting a legitimate investment will know not to try and tell you you’ll definitely get a high rate of return – hence why ‘risk warnings’ are so common with many marketing materials of investment firms.
Unusual investments
Another common red flag to watch for is unusual investments. Perhaps the most well-known example of this was the storage pod investment pension scam.
In 2017 the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) launched an investigation into two SIPP firms Capita Oak Pension and Henley Retirement Benefit for selling ‘storage pods’ to investors.
The SFO estimated losses around £120 million for those scammed into the scheme since 2011 – which essentially involved storage containers being purchased with investor money, which were then rented out.
Investors later found the returns were not as advertised and they couldn’t withdraw their money either.
Similar variations of this scam exist to sell other outlandish investments, including hotel rooms in the Caribbean or palm oil plantations in Asia.
Report the scam
This list is not exhaustive but is designed to give you an idea of how scammers might try to part you from your cash.
If you feel like you’ve been contacted by a scammer it is really important to report it. Not only to protect yourself, but to protect others who they might try and target.
- Text messages should be forwarded to Action Fraud – using number 7726.
- If you think you’ve fallen victim to a scam, in England, Wales or Northern Ireland, report it to Action Fraud online or by calling 0300 123 2040. In Scotland, report to Police Scotland by calling 101.
- You can also report a phishing attempt using the Action Fraud site, or by forwarding an email you think is suspicious to report@phishing.gov.uk.
If you have any concerns or issues you’d like to discuss further relating to scams, don’t hesitate to get in touch with a financial adviser to discuss.
The World In A Week – TikTok – is the clock ticking for Facebook?
Written by Richard Warne.
Last week saw equity markets rebound, with the global index MSCI All Country World Index up +1.1% in Sterling terms, but this masked a high degree of volatility beneath the surface. Earnings’ season has got under way in the US in earnest, and the past few weeks have been quite a ride for equity markets. It appears investors are broadly reassessing valuations and positioning against a backdrop of tightening financial conditions.
A case in point, on Friday the Nasdaq 100 Index in the US fell over -4%, the biggest one-day loss since September 2020, yet still managed to end the week in positive territory. Let’s take a look at some of the US technology stocks that reported last week and the subsequent market reaction. Facebook, or ‘Meta’ as it is now known, fell over -25% wiping a staggering $230bn+ of market cap in one day. The Company blamed TikTok competition, and revenue headwinds and supply chain related cost increases for a substantial miss on its earnings numbers.
A similar story was unfolding in Snapchat, where investors were abandoning the stock in anticipation of difficult earnings’ numbers. The stock price fell over -20% by Thursday, and by the close of Friday this had turned into nearly a +30% gain! The Company ended up smashing revenue forecasts and forward guidance. At the same time, Amazon was caught up in the melee, taking a hit earlier in the week, only to rebound over +13% on Friday. The week certainly reflected plenty of overexcitement from investors racing to get ahead of the pack on earnings’ expectations. Wild times!
It’s not hard to see that this heightened volatility could continue, with the Fed’s hawkish stance on tapering and raising rates continuing to send jitters through bond markets and equity markets alike. Hold tight!
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 7th February 2022.
© 2022 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - Hiking uphill from here
Written by Millan Chauhan.
Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee decided on Wednesday to hold interest rates at 0.25%. Following the announcement, we saw the US 10-year bond yield reach 1.87% which is often a proxy used to discount company valuations. This saw US markets sell-off, having opened higher at the start of the day, which illustrates how sensitive markets are to new information and ultimately how volatile markets have become.
Despite interest rates being held still, the Federal Reserve did signal that a rate hike of 0.25% may be likely in March 2022 which would be the first time the Fed has raised rates since 2018. The Federal Reserve still remains committed to keeping inflation at the 2% target and, with the US inflation rate at 7% in December 2021, there are expectations that a sequence of rate hikes is likely to occur for the rest of 2022.
Tensions between NATO and Russia remain high, and a solution has yet to be agreed. Russia has recently deployed roughly 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders, prompting warnings from the West that there would be consequences if they were to invade its pro-Western neighbour. Boris Johnson is set to speak to Russian President Vladimir Putin virtually and subsequently visit eastern Europe in the coming days as the UK increases its diplomatic efforts. Johnson has offered NATO a further 900 troops for deployment in Estonia and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has said that Russian oligarchs will be faced with severe sanctions should Russia invade Ukraine.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 31st January 2022.
© 2022 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - A call to arms
Written by Shane Balkham.
The Federal Reserve set out its stall for 2022 in its December meeting last year, with an acceleration in the ending of their asset purchase programme, which would clear the way for potentially three rate hikes this year. This was useful forward guidance from the world’s most important central bank.
The Federal Open Market Committee is meeting this week to discuss and plan the orderly removal of liquidity, mainly to combat the continuing rise in inflation. The rhetoric of just one month ago now seems stale, as the market is now looking for four rate hikes in 2022. The backdrop of rising inflation has seen investors calling for more action from the Central Bank. Jamie Dimon, CEO of J.P. Morgan, is looking for a more aggressive Fed. He was quoted as saying “there is room for six or seven rate hikes this year”.
Whatever the outcome of the meeting this week, the Fed needs to move quickly as markets look to move ahead of where the Central Bank was aiming. It is a call to arms for the policymaker to take significant and appropriate actions.
Another battle, that is hopefully not going to be fought, is also becoming increasingly tense. This was brought into the media spotlight last week with President Biden claiming an incursion by Russia was likely. A new approach to avoiding a potential war has been to make the situation public. This war of words has arguably stolen Vladimir Putin’s ability to surprise but has equally shown the West to be disjointed in knowing how to handle Russia.
However, this could be perceived as having backed Putin into a corner, with Moscow reaffirming its original warning of “unpredictable and grave consequences” if the US does not concede to rolling back the expansion of NATO. This is precariously balanced with deterrents and decisions at a decisive juncture.
Microsoft announced its $70 billion deal to acquire video game developer Activision Blizzard. Known for online gaming series Call of Duty, Candy Crush, and World of Warcraft, this is a land grab for expertise in the early stage of the Metaverse. The deal reverberated across the gaming industry with Sony taking the brunt of the negative share price reactions, as Microsoft looks set to turn itself into one of the biggest creators of online gaming.
This is the biggest deal in Microsoft’s history and will undoubtedly attract scrutiny from the US antitrust regulators, who have been readying themselves to tackle the dominance of ‘Big Tech’.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 24th January 2022.
© 2022 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
Financial goals 2022: how to prepare your money for the year ahead
2022 is here, so it’s time to sit down, put the kettle on, and think about the year ahead for your money.
While it might seem a bit hackneyed setting New Year’s resolutions and such, thinking about how you want your financial situation to develop will give you a good head start in achieving both short-term and long-term goals.
But what should that thought process look like?
It can be easy to get bogged down in the minutiae of financial decisions, but this should be primarily a big picture process.
Is this the year you buy a house or move up the ladder? Is it time for retirement? Or are you just looking to continue growing your wealth as much as possible?
There’s no doubt you’ll have an idea already, and life can also get in the way, but a solid direction of travel is key.
Once you’ve got that ‘big picture’ in mind, then you can set yourself targets, goals and outcomes you’d like.
Reaffirm your goals
When it comes to financial planning, wealth growth and management, it all ultimately comes down to what your goals are.
Without goals, you can have no direction in your planning. It is likely you have a goal, or at least an idea in mind to begin with.
Think about what it is going to take to achieve that goal. If it’s a long-term aspiration, one year ahead might just be a minor part of that bigger picture.
But ultimately even the small choices we make have profound effects. Whether it’s putting money down on a new car, or socking it away in an ISA instead, that will change your outlook and strategy.
Be it a new car, retirement or a house, or any other financial goal, being clear what it is, is massively important.
Having this in mind will help define important aspects of wealth building such as timeline, risk appetite, and structure of your wealth.
Review your costs
Once you’ve got a clear idea of what you want from your personal finances and wealth in the next year, it’s time to look at how you can eke more out of what you’ve already got in front of you.
It is true that every year prices go up – but in 2022 we’re under particularly significant price pressures from inflation, and now the added issue of rising interest rates too.
Reviewing your spending in light of these problems is a tried and tested method for inoculating your money against shocks.
Reviewing bills, bargaining new deals, cancelling unused subscriptions, finding ways to be more frugal with everyday and non-essential spending – these are just some of the things you can do.
Think of it as a Spring cleaning for your finances – you make decisions every day of the year that accumulate and end up changing the face of your budget over a year.
Taking time to review and reset that is essential.
Reallocate resources
Once you’ve thought carefully about your costs, where cuts can be made or money spent more efficiently, you’re ready to look at how to reallocate what you have left each month.
This also counts for what you’re already saving. Is it going into the right place?
Cash is a viable place to keep wealth, but only if you plan on using it on a short time horizon. Everything else should be invested in one way or another.
But investing is an ever-changing beast to tackle. You should have long time horizons in mind when investing, but making adjustments and reassessing investment cases regularly is important, even if you don’t make any changes.
And where it goes matters too. Pensions may be a good long-term vehicle but having an ISA, or even a LISA can be really effective for wealth growth too. Thinking about the best way to allocate to those different accounts can make a big long-term difference to your wealth growth.
Get a check up
Once you’ve got a clearer idea of your costs, and your resources that you’re ready to deploy through savings or investments, consider getting a financial health check with an adviser.
Independent financial advisers have the benefit of being able to take an overarching view of where your wealth is, and what needs to be done to maximise its potential.
Get in touch with your financial adviser and talk about the above discussed topics, and you’ll be well-set for the year ahead.
Interest rates are going up – how it can affect your finances
The Bank of England surprised everyone in December by raising interest rates.
It did so from the all-time low of 0.1% to 0.25% – still a relatively low level by historic standards. For example, look back to 1990 and the bank’s interest rate was 15%.
More recently though – pre-2008 financial crisis – rates hovered above 5% for nearly a decade. So we’re starting from a low base with rate rises now.
But this will still affect your finances. And the Bank of England could keep hiking this year, with rises up to 1% possible.
Why raise interest rates?
The Bank of England’s primary objective for its ‘monetary policy’ is to keep inflation at bay. Unlike the US, it has no particular mandate regarding employment.
It is tasked by the Government to keep inflation to as near to 2% as possible. At the time of writing, inflation is a wallet-busting 5.1% on the consumer price index (CPI) measure.
By hiking interest rates in response to this, the Bank of England is attempting to quell demand. The ‘real world’ effect of this is that borrowing becomes more expensive, leaving businesses and households with less money to spend – forcing people to tighten their belts and slow down consumption.
At least, that is the economic theory. In practice the economic picture is more complicated. But for the purposes of our personal finances, this is the most important element to have in mind.
Impact of inflation
When thinking about how interest rate rises might affect your money, it’s first essential to consider why those rates are going up.
As mentioned above, rates are hiked because inflation is intolerably high. Inflation is the measure of how fast consumer prices are increasing, based on a balance of supply and demand.
You can have two core feeders into rising prices – either demand goes up, or supply becomes constrained. We have inflation now because of a mixture of both.
Lockdowns in 2020 and 2021 saw household spending plummet, leading to people having bigger than usual savings pots. Plus, the financial assistance from the Government in the form of the furlough scheme and other aid helped keep a lot of workers’ incomes relatively stable. This means when the economy opened up people had more money to spend.
This in turn caused a surge in demand for products and services which complex supply chains around the world struggled to fulfil. In combination then, the two effects have forced inflation much higher, quickly.
The net result of this is a range of goods and services we buy every day have become more expensive, faster than anyone expected. Everything from grocery bills, to clothes, fuel for our cars and energy supply to our houses has shot up in cost.
With this the state of the economy then, hiking interest rates becomes inevitable. But how does that in turn impact your personal finances and wealth?
Essentially, unless your earnings are rising to match the rise in the cost of living, you will find it harder to pay for the things you need each month.
It is likely that inflation will fall back down as a result of the rate hikes, and goods and services will rise in price less quickly. But it takes time for the effects to be felt in this sense.
There is however a more immediate impact of interest rate hikes on our personal finances.
Debt
The first, and usually most immediate impact of a rate rise, is to make the cost of debt rise.
When the Bank of England hiked rates in December, banks almost instantaneously announced they were hiking mortgage rates on new products, and those products which had tracker rates.
The same is true for personal loans without a fixed rate (although these are uncommon), and credit cards too. It is unfortunately quite cynical, but like when petrol and diesel prices rise, the banks pass on rate rises almost immediately to their customers.
It can be tricky to avoid these rises. If you have a mortgage which tracks the base rate, now would be an excellent time to consider remortgaging to a fixed rate. If you’re looking to get a new mortgage, then there really isn’t much you can do other than making sure you try to get the best deal possible, or have the biggest deposit you can to minimise the debt you take on.
If you have unsecured debts such as credit cards, try to pay off as much as you can as soon as possible. This will save you significant future costs to servicing that debt. Typically, providers have to give you 30 days’ notice if they do hike their rate, and you have 60 days to pay off the balance before it kicks in.
Savings rates
When interest rates go up, savings rates should go up too. Indeed, before the bank rate was hiked, savings rates were beginning to rise.
But there is a big caveat in this. The part of the cash savings market that saw rises was only in the top end with niche smaller providers.
Big retail banks such as HSBC, Lloyds and NatWest have continued to keep their average rates on offer extremely low. The current rate of interest offered by NatWest, for example, is 0.01% in its Instant Saver account, an extraordinarily miserly offer.
That compares with the current top rate instant savings account (at the time of writing) which is offered by Harpenden Building Society and comes with a rate of 0.75%.
Essentially the message here is that savings rates will go up now the bank rate is going up too. But if you want your money to work harder, it has to be placed somewhere where it will get the best rate possible.
For comparison of rates, a useful resource is Savers Friend, which is operated by financial data firm Moneyfacts.
But in reality, unless it is short term cash or a rainy-day fund, it’s likely to be better placed in investments to grow over time.
Investments
Finally, although indirectly, rising interest rates affect investments.
This happens through a more surreptitious process though and isn’t as obvious as a bank hiking rates. But some investments will begin to underperform once interest rates rise.
This happens for a multitude of reasons, but largely comes down to the bulk of investors moving away from fast growth stocks, such as tech, and into companies that benefit from rising rates, including (ironically enough) banks, manufacturers which benefit from lower material prices, home builders, and others.
Ultimately predicting how interest rates will affect particular investments is a difficult process. If unsure, then speak to your financial adviser who can help you figure out the best solution to your investment needs.
The World In A Week - Roses are red, the markets are too
Written by Cormac Nevin.
Last week was a busy one with regards to both news flow and market movements. The MSCI World Index of developed market equities was down -1.2% for the week in GBP terms, compounding a -2.0% return for the month to date and -6.3% for the year to date. This was led (once again) by a strong sell-off in US tech and growth names, with the NASDAQ 100 down -3.5% last week capping a -13.0% year to date loss. Markets are having to adjust to a higher inflation and higher interest rate environment, coupled with geopolitical risks around Ukraine and Taiwan. Fixed Income provided little buoyancy for investors as interest rates continued to rise, in particular the Sterling credit & gilt market has been a very poor performer.
The standout market event of last week was the release of Consumer Price Index data in the US on Thursday which illustrated that once again prices were rising faster than expected. This led to comments from Federal Reserve members implying that monetary policy needs to be tightened more rapidly, even potentially involving a rate rise of 1% by July. Markets are now concerned that developed market central banks, particularly those in the US and UK, are now meaningfully “behind the curve” and that the persistency of inflation has taken them by surprise.
Higher inflation readings are being sustained by ongoing global supply chain issues as economies in the Far East are disrupted by the spread of the omicron variant. Tight labour markets also increase the risk of economies entering into a wage-price spiral, despite the handsomely remunerated Governor of the Bank of England suggesting workers hold off on wage increase demands. The machinations of Mr Putin are keeping energy prices high and the market jittery, while romantics out there will also be sad to hear that the price of cacao continues to trade close to its five-year high.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 14th February 2022.
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