Tips for building a nest egg for your children or grandchildren
Starting early can make an extraordinary difference to long-term wealth. Here are some options to help your children or grandchildren.
Building a nest egg for a child or grandchild needn’t be a difficult process. But the earlier you start, the better the outcome will be for them. Not starting saving earlier in life is a common problem, but it can be difficult in your 20s and 30s to get your savings going with so many costs of living. But once you’re older, with kids or even grandkids, you may start to think about whether you can help them get a financial foothold in life to help them when they’re older. Not only does it make sense from an inheritance perspective – the more you give away while you are younger, the less potential there is for tax liabilities – but the earlier you start building them a nest egg then the bigger that egg will be.
If you’re looking to make a start there are some options which can make It simple and tax-efficient.
Junior ISAs
The Junior ISA or ‘JISA’ should be your first port of call when considering saving for a child or grandchild.
JISAs, like normal ISAs, come in a few forms. You can start with a Stocks and Shares JISA or a cash JISA. Cash JISAs, while offering rates that tend to be better than normal savings accounts, still don’t offer much by way of interest at present. At the time of writing the top cash JISA offers 2.5% interest.
A stocks and shares JISA, while not offering a guaranteed rate of return, will have the benefit of access to investment markets. Because the time horizon of a child is so long (if you start saving for your kids when you have them you potentially have an 18-year window to amass a pot for them), it suits investing in equity markets which have shown to deliver superior long-term returns.
The Government has increased the limit on annual JISA contributions to £9,000 a year. This can be split between a cash account and an investment one, if you prefer. The child can then access the money in the JISA and have full control of it at age 18.
Children’s savings accounts
There are a variety of children’s savings accounts on offer, some from big High Street banks and some from new challenger banks. While the top-choice products offer similar rates to cash JISAs, they are mainly inferior to JISAs because of their lack of a tax wrapper. In reality then these kinds of accounts should only be turned to if you’ve maxed out the annual contribution for your child’s JISA, but still have further money you want to give them.
There is one consideration to make for children’s savings accounts however, from the perspective of education. Often a children’s savings account will give more responsibility to them than a JISA which parents manage. Giving a child their own account to manage can provide valuable life lessons to them from an early age.
Pensions
Yes, that’s right, a pension. You can open a pension for your child. While the rules governing pensions prevent them from accessing the money before pension freedom age, it could be a valuable alternative or addition to a JISA.
The annual limit you can contribute to a child’s pension is £2,880 per year. This is given 20% tax relief much the same as regular pensions, meaning you can put away up to £3,600 in total. Like a stocks and shares JISA, a pension has the benefit of access to investment markets, which really could help with long-term wealth creation.
The conundrum of picking between a pension or a JISA is that the former can only be accessed at age 55 (which could increase to 57 in 2028), while the latter gives the child full access to the money at age 18.
Unless you’re confident that the child will have a fully responsible mindset with their money at age 18, it may be worth hedging and having a blend of both accounts.
But likewise helping them to understand the importance of what you’ve given them and learning good financial habits as they grow up may put them in a great position to use that money wisely. And with the long-term landscape so uncertain, it may be better to give them something they can access at 18.
Are you saving enough for retirement? Here’s what to consider when planning
From living longer to cruises of a lifetime - here are a few things you need to consider when saving for your retirement.
There’s no one easy way to calculate how much you’ll need to get by in retirement, as everyone has different goals and aims for how they want to enjoy it. However, there are some general pointers that can help you get a grasp of what you need, and what you need to be saving and investing to achieve it. When planning for your retirement, thinking about how much income you’d like on a monthly basis is a great starting point.
A rough guide to help could be assessing what you spend monthly now, and then taking away bills which will not be there in future (your mortgage, for example, which has a fixed end date). Doing this can help you get a clearer picture of what it costs just to maintain the lifestyle you currently have.
A common ‘rule of thumb’ in this regard is replacing about 70% of your salary on an annual basis. This is predicated on the idea that you will have paid off the mortgage, so won’t have that to pay off each month. Think then in terms of percentage income. A £200,000 pension pot that pays 3% per year will pay out £6,000. You might be able to attain more income for that size of pot, but it will involve more risk.
It’s also important to think about whether you want work to be a hard stop, or you plan on transitioning over time out of full employment. This can be a good option if your pension pot doesn’t extend as far as you may like yet, and the state pension is a way off from kicking in.
Keeping the state pension in mind is also important. While it may not seem like enormous sums of money, it does form a key part of many people’s retirement plans. The age of the state pension is creeping up slowly, which needs to be kept in mind when planning.
Perhaps the best answer to “how much should I save?’ is “as much as you can”, but there are some other factors to consider.
Think of the ‘U’
Saving for retirement is about goals. What do you want, and how long do you expect to want it for? As retirement unfolds everyone has a different idea of what they’ll want to do with that time and money.
On average though people’s expenditure tends to follow a ‘U’ shape. That is – when they first retire spending is high because they reap the benefits with tax-free lump sums and access to cash - taking nice holidays or maybe finally putting that extension they always wanted on the house. As they settle into a more normal routine over time though, costs start to diminish (the bottom of the U).
Finally, as people enter their later years, costs tend to rise again. This can be from more banal things like getting help in the garden or around the house, to more significant events such as health issues or care requirements.
Lamborghini or Laburnum?
Thinking about your needs in retirement can be framed principally through the kind of lifestyle you intend to lead. The income needs of someone who plans to be at home with grandkids tending to a garden will be very different from someone who intends to jump on cruises and see the world, or buy a fast car. Both choices are fine ones to make, but the former will likely be more frugal than the latter. That being said, if you’re planning to spend time at home, you will likely have to think more about the cost of living there, maintenance and even whether you’ve got equity locked up inside the property.
Live long and prosper
The other big thing to think about is longevity. Not only do you need to be able to replicate a portion of your income via a pension and other wealth on day one of retirement – it needs to be able to last for a long time. While predicting your own lifespan is impossible, there is a guide to keep in mind from the Office of National Statistics (ONS). At the moment a man aged 55 has a life expectancy in the UK of 84 years according to the ONS. This rises to 87 for a woman. While these are only averages, this is a significant period of time by any measure. While taking an income from wealth is perfectly possible, the more you save early on, the more time it has to grow and the better your outcomes will be overall.
For those that don’t have as much saved at retirement as they would have liked, it means either adjusting their lifestyle accordingly, or taking more risk with their pensions (something which brings its own challenges). The good news is, a lot of this can be addressed right now. Saving regularly and investing that money to an appropriate level of risk for you, at all stages of your adult life, is crucial. Retirement planning needs to be done as soon as reasonably practicable, because the earlier you start investing in a pension, the more it will be worth.
Your adviser can help you consider these plans more carefully. Don’t hesitate to get in touch.
Is it time you ditched your High Street bank and went digital?
With a slew of digital-only options, is it time to ditch your old bank? We look at how Monzo, Starling and Revolut are challenging the old guard.
Digital-only banks have become more established in the past few years, with a multitude of options. But is it time to ditch your High Street bank for one of them? In the past decade since the financial crisis a multitude of digital-only banks have emerged as banking customers look for new and innovative ways to handle their finances.
Digital-only financial options are now really varied, and consumer choice has never been better, with plenty to pick from via your smartphone. The range of services from digital-only providers now matches those provided by the high street. However, for the purposes of this article we’re going to focus on current accounts. Big banks such as HSBC, Lloyds and NatWest have come under increasing pressure in recent times from so-called challenger banks in the current accounts market. But what do these challengers actually offer to customers?
Here are some top picks, their best features and drawbacks.
Monzo
Perhaps the most famous one on this list, Monzo is well-known now for its flashy ‘hot coral’ (read: pink) debit cards.
Monzo offers lots of features including budgeting, spending analytics and ‘pots’ which you can create to help manage and apportion your money. You can even set up bill-specific pots to keep cash aside to pay your monthly bills from. You can set yourself monthly spending limits and make payments really easily within the app. It will also give you summaries of spending areas each month, categorised in sections such as eating out, personal care or groceries. This can be especially helpful if you’re struggling to identify areas where you might be overspending regularly.
Like High Street stalwarts such as Lloyds or NatWest, Monzo is a fully licenced UK bank. As such you get £85,000 deposit protection from the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS). The account also provides other optional services such as overdrafts and loans. It also has a premium service called Monzo Premium, which costs £15 and will give you phone insurance, worldwide travel insurance, 1.5% interest on balances up to £2,000 and other perks – it even comes with a shiny metal bank card. Check if you’re not already receiving some of these services such as phone protection on your home insurance though, as it may not be worth it.
Starling
The other major digital-only bank to choose from is Starling, founded by long-time banker Anne Boden. Boden worked for years at major High Street banking institutions before taking what she’d learned from those places and implementing the best bits into Starling.
Starling has lots of spending analytics, makes payments really easy and has a user-friendly interface for customers who might not be the most tech-savvy. It also has segregated spending pots called ‘spaces’ which can help you manage small savings goals.
One of the standout features on Starling though is zero-cost spending abroad. Starling charges nothing for you to spend abroad, and only changes your money into foreign currency at the interbank rate, meaning you’ll always get the best deal when using your Starling card abroad. It also has the option to add joint accounts for you and your partner, plus euro accounts if you need to keep, send or receive money in euros.
As with Monzo, it is also a fully licenced UK bank offering all the same protections as peers.
Best of the rest
While digital banking apps have proliferated in recent times, most are not really worth considering for one specific reason – they aren’t licenced UK banks and don’t have the same level of deposit protection as Monzo, Starling, or big High Street banks.
There are, however, two names of note in this category: Revolut and Monese.
Revolut has become something of an alternative option. It has many of the features of Monzo and Starling but doesn’t currently have FSCS protection. Rather, money is secured in so-called e-money accounts. The feature that sets Revolut apart is the greater variety of currencies you can maintain balances in. It is, however, an inferior choice if you’re looking for UK-specific current accounts.
Monese gets a mention because it is extremely easy to set up and use. However, like Revolut it doesn’t currently carry any deposit protection.
Whether you decide to drop your old bank or not, there is certainly plenty to choose from now in digital banking. Although the aforementioned apps have done a lot to innovate when it comes to mobile-only banking, many of the bigger banks have now largely caught up in terms of features.
It’s best to consider what you need the account for, and whether it’s suited to you, before moving all your bills and salary into it. Remember though that there’s no limit to how many current accounts you have, so keeping more than one is perfectly possible. Just try not to open them all at once as this may leave an impression on your credit report.
The World In A Week - Tax becomes less taxing
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) published its latest economic outlook last week. There were no hidden surprises in the 221 pages, whose narrative echoed that the pandemic continues to cast a long shadow over the world’s economies, with the silver lining being an improved prospect for the global economy due to vaccinations and stronger policy support. However, the path to recovery will be an uneven one.
The headlines gave a forecast for global growth of +5.75% in 2021 and +4.4% in 2022, a sharp rise from the decline of -3.5% in 2020. The biggest risks revolve around the deployment of vaccines not being fast enough to stop the transmission of the virus and the emergence of new, more contagious variants. This will hamper the pace at which containment measures can be relaxed and stifle the expected boost to consumer confidence and spending.
A relaxation in lockdown measures did allow for the G7 finance ministers to meet face-to-face in Cornwall over the weekend. Global taxation was highest on the agenda and it was agreed that global corporate taxes should have a minimum level of 15%, and large companies with a profit margin of at least 10% should be taxed where they conduct business. If negotiations go well, the agreement could be extended to the G20, and could see the end of countries competing on lower tax levels and an end to the race to the bottom.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 7th June 2021.
© 2021 Beaufort Investment. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - House Rules
Inflationary pressures continue to be one of the leading concerns with strong expectations that there is significant pent-up demand for goods and services as economies start to unlock from lockdowns. However, European Central Bank policymakers stated they saw no evidence of sustained inflationary pressure. Should there be strong spending activity in the coming months, we would expect supply chains to be impacted which would cause prices to rise. Alongside the strong pent-up demand, the level of consumption that is ready to be deployed should not be underestimated as consumers have seen their savings rate increase substantially and the increased demand for luxury brands has already demonstrated this. Several officials from the Federal Reserve have also commented that they expect this inflationary pressure to be temporary. We have started to see the emergence of this inflationary pressure as the US Commerce Department reported on Friday that its core personal consumption expenditure price index increased 3.1% in the year (ended 30th April). This exceeded the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and was the biggest increase in nearly three decades.
House prices in the UK rose 10.9% compared to 31st May last year according to the UK Nationwide house price index. The lifestyle shift, increased savings rate and stamp duty holiday has accelerated the demand for housing in more rural areas, where the need to be within a short commuting distance has diminished. However, the development of new houses has not accelerated at the same level and there is significant excess demand in the housing market today, causing the significant rise in prices.
US financial authorities are set to take a more active role in the regulation of the $1.5tn cryptocurrency market with overriding concerns that investors may be harmed. Cryptocurrency has been one of the leading themes over the last year with Bitcoin, one of the major coins, reaching highs of $60,000 in April before pulling back substantially to $34,750 and remains a very volatile and unstable store of value.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 1st June 2021.
The World In A Week – Nul Points
Global equity markets ended the week marginally negative, but under the bonnet there was a high degree of volatility over the five trading days, with the S&P 500 in the US down over -2.5% at one point, only to bounce back strongly and end a smidge below its all-time high.
Much of the volatility was driven early in the week by the crypto meltdown. We saw the Chinese government continue to crack down on cryptocurrencies, banning financial services and payment companies from providing services related to crypto by stopping trading, clearing, and settling via crypto. The Government said, “cryptocurrencies are not supported by real value” and warned private investors against speculative trading. At the same time, we saw Elon Musk, owner of Tesla, perform a 180-degree U-turn on the asset class, suspending vehicle purchases via Bitcoin, citing climate change concerns as the reason. Furthermore, there is the threat of a possible tax clampdown in the US. As a store of wealth or viable form of money, these headwinds are causing the huge degrees of volatility we are seeing and must really make the most ardent supporters’ waiver.
There has been speculation whirling for a while, but Amazon is now reported to be making a $9bn bid for MGM, which might put a fresh shine on some old classics. Amazon has over 200 million Prime subscribers, of which 175 million stream Prime Video, according to CEO Jeff Bezos. MGM has a huge back catalogue of content covering over 4,000 titles with household names such as James Bond, The Hobbit and Rocky. A profitable and expanding franchise for the Amazon empire.
Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) was also evident in the UK, with private equity firm KKR bidding £2bn for John Laing, the UK infrastructure company. M&A is a theme we have seen at play in the UK market over the last few months as UK assets look cheap and offer good value to potential buyers, one of the reasons that Beaufort Investment decided to increase its UK equity allocation from neutral to overweight back in February.
Finally, coming to the biggest shock or non-shock of the week – the UK’s entry scored ‘nul points’ in the Eurovision song contest leaving the UK, the Brexit bad boys, left out in the cold….. Hardly market moving, but all good harmless fun, watched by millions across the continent.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 24th May 2021.
© 2021 Beaufort Investment. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - Inflated Expectations Return to Earth
Last week was a negative one for markets, as the MSCI All Country World Index of global stocks returned -2.3% in GBP terms.
The stand-out macroeconomic event of the week was the release of US inflation data on Wednesday, which revealed that prices were rising faster than market participants had anticipated. The increase in consumer price inflation came to +4.2% over the 12 months to April, the highest reading since 2008. This has been spurred on by monetary stimulus in the form of asset purchases from the Federal Reserve, the large fiscal stimulus planned by the Biden administration; as well as significant supply bottlenecks experienced by many raw material producers. This has seen the price of commodities such as lumber, copper, and corn rocket higher, albeit from quite a low base.
Increased inflation expectations, coupled with the higher interest rates which central banks may feel they now need to implement sooner, led to quite a substantial sell-off in the very frothy end of the US Tech sector (particularly the unprofitable parts, of which there are many). The NASDAQ Index of US Tech names was down -3.1% for the week, while retail favourites packed with loss-making “moonshot” stocks such as the ARK Disruptive Innovation ETF and the Baillie Gifford Global Discovery Fund lost -6.0% and -6.9% respectively. We continue to find the prices of assets in this end of the market to be disconnected from reality and increasingly unattractive in a potential rising inflation and interest rate environment. What was also amusing to observe, in a week where inflation exceeded expectations, was a -18.3% fall in the price of Bitcoin. The legion of online zealots touting the cryptocurrency as an inflation hedge may need to review their investment hypothesis.
Segments of the market, which we have been more constructive on, performed relatively better over the week. Global value stocks outperformed global growth names by +1.9%, while the value-orientated UK Equity market (which we are overweight) was the best performing global equity asset class for the week.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 17th May 2021.
Inflation is back – should you be worried?
Inflation has been off the agenda for investors for years, but prices are rising again – and it could have implications for your finances.
Inflation has been low by historical standards for much of the past decade, with price growth falling particularly sharply over the past three years. Never the easiest factor to track when it comes to your finances – a situation not helped by the amount of measures for inflation which exist – inflation has nonetheless been muted for the past few years. Using the Government’s preferred method of calculating inflation – known as CPIH – we can see that inflation has been below its official target of 2% since July 2019.
What is CPIH
CPIH stands for The Consumer Prices Index including Owner Occupiers’ Housing and covers the cost of a list of everyday items consumers buy or use, including housing costs. Between July 2019, when it stood at 2%, CPIH has plunged as low as 0.5% in the depths of the pandemic last August, before recovering as the economy unlocked. It currently stands at 1% as of March, with the reading for April due out later this month. Clearly this is some way off the Bank of England’s own target of 2%, but the important thing to remember with inflation is the trajectory, not the absolute number. This was alluded to at the latest Bank of England meeting when Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank and head of the committee which monitors inflation, said inflation could be “a bit bumpy this year.”
Indeed, the central projection from the Bank is that, as the vaccine programme continues and the economy unlocks more, it should mean the CPIH figure jumps above 2% towards the end of this year. There is also the ever-present risk that it goes higher than forecast, with factors such as rising commodity prices and demand for goods and services also having the potential to exceed forecasts and push up the overall inflation number.
Should you worry about rising inflation?
Inflation is bad for some of your investments, in particular cash. The value of cash is eroded over time by inflation, so a pound today buys you substantially less than it did 20 years ago, for example. For investors sitting on large amounts of cash, rising inflation is problematic at this point in time because interest rates – and therefore the interest the bank pays you for leaving your money in cash – are at record lows. The Bank of England was forced to cut rates to 0.1% in the UK last year in response to the pandemic, and it has yet to raise them from this level. With inflation currently at 1%, it means the value of any cash you may have in the bank is being eroded every year, unless it is in a bank account paying more than 1%.
For investments too, rising inflation has implications. Some investments, like commodities such as oil, can protect portfolios from rising inflation, as they often rise in tandem. Investments such as bonds, on the other hand, suffer because they pay holders a fixed amount of interest every year, and if inflation rises it can often leave these bonds paying an income that is below the inflation rate.
What can you do about it?
As with all investments, including cash, investors should regularly review their holdings. If inflation is rising, there are a number of options to counter its damaging effects on your wealth, including investing in equities, commodities, and some inflation-linked investments which track the inflation rate.
However, as always, if you have any concerns or queries the best course of action is to get in touch with your adviser.
A quarter of a million over 55s get caught out by this pension tax trap each year – don’t be one of them
The little-known Money Purchase Annual Allowance is catching out thousands of pension savers each year. Here are a few ways to prevent yourself from falling into the trap.
A little-known pensions rule catches out thousands of savers every year, and has potentially become more prevalent because of the pandemic, according to new data. Some 5,000 over 55s are stung every week by a little-known pensions rule called the Money Purchase Annual Allowance (MPAA), data from retirement firm Just Group has shown. The Money Purchase Annual Allowance (MPAA) is a specific rule which can be accidentally triggered by savers, cutting the amount they can save in to pensions tax-free under their annual allowance. The figures from Just Group suggest some 260,000 people are being caught out by the rule every year.
What is the Money Purchase Annual Allowance?
The Money Purchase Annual Allowance (MPAA) is a rule which defines how much you can deposit into a pension each year and still receive tax relief on those contributions. The normal limit is £40,000 and is defined by the amount you contribute into a Defined Contribution (DC) pension, including employer contributions. With Defined Benefit (DB) pensions – also known as final salary pensions – this is defined as the amount by which it increases in value each year. However, the MPAA - which is triggered by a particular set of circumstances - can cut an individual’s annual allowance from £40,000 to £4,000.
Those triggers include:
- Taking an entire pension pot as a lump sum or starting to take ad-hoc lump sums from a pension pot
- Putting pension pot money into a flexi-access drawdown scheme and taking an income
- Buying an investment-linked or flexible annuity where income could drop
- Having a pre-April 2015 capped drawdown plan and taking payments that exceed the cap
The rule is in place so that no one can benefit from having a pension income while still feeding new cash into a pension pot and taking the benefit of tax relief. While the rule is a feature of the system rather than a failure, the contention is that some over 55s who may not have otherwise triggered the MPAA during normal times, have been inadvertently hit by it during the coronavirus crisis. For instance – someone aged 55 may have been in full-time employment and still contributing to their pension regularly, with no intention of drawing money out of the pension because they still had a salary. Thanks to the economic crisis caused by the pandemic, they may have since needed to access extra cash as an emergency, or even lost their employment, and with it, regular pension contributions.
Even if the MPAA is triggered under these circumstances the person is treated as if they’re now living on their pension income. They are then unable to return to making regular contributions up to £40,000, even if they don’t intend on using their pension for an income and still want to put more in.
What is the best way to avoid MPAA?
The good news is, there are some steps you can take to avoid being penalised inadvertently.
- Have a rainy day fund. Many people have been forced to trigger the allowance because they’ve needed short-term cash during a crisis. Having a solid rainy-day fund in cash savings would prevent this.
- Don’t take more than the 25% tax-free lump sum from your pension. You can take up to 25% from your pension tax-free, so if you don’t go over this, it won’t trigger the MPAA
- Take from smaller pension pots first. Any pension pot you have under £10,000 will be exempt from MPAA if you make a withdrawal. However, you can only do this in a maximum of three non-occupational pots.
Once you retire and begin to rely more on your pension the MPAA may become unavoidable. But if you’re no longer earning a salary or contributing new cash routinely to a pot, this shouldn’t be a huge issue. The trick is to be careful around the time when you are looking to use some pension funds if you are still earning from a salary and trying to save and benefit from tax relief.
If you’re interested in discussing the MPAA more, or want to know anything else about your pension, don’t hesitate to get in touch with your adviser.
The World In A Week - Inflation Narratives & Deflated Expectations
Last week was broadly positive for markets, as the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) of global stocks rallied +1.8% in GBP terms. It was a mixed bag beneath the surface, with European Equities and US tech stocks driving the rally while UK and Emerging Markets were more muted and Chinese markets were down. Both the riskiest and least risky forms of debt posted positive returns as high yield bonds and treasuries were up roughly +0.5%.
These patterns of returns are not typical for markets and may reflect the principal ongoing debate taking place among market participants, that being the topic of inflation. Last week saw another release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in the US which showed inflation was running ahead of expectations, albeit by a modest amount. Headline inflation came out at +5% on an annualised basis, while “core” inflation (which excludes volatile food and energy) printed at +3.8%.
The relevant markets were decidedly unperturbed by this news. The yield on the 10 year US Treasury Bond fell (not what we would traditionally expect when inflation is rising), while the 5 Year Breakeven inflation rate also continued on its downward path. We follow inflation “breakeven” rates as they imply what the market thinks inflation will average out at over the next five years. Right now the markets share the Federal Reserve’s view that the current inflationary spell will be temporary.
We think there are very good arguments on both sides for whether inflation will prove as “transitory” as the Fed expects it to be. On the one hand, while the data shows an inflationary trend that is faster than many expected, it has been spurred by increases in prices that are likely to be temporary such as used cars and flights. There are also major deflationary global forces arising from technology and an aging population.
On the other hand, the bond markets (and indeed many multi-asset managers) may well have been conditioned by decades of low/falling inflation to believe it never poses a threat again. Vast amounts of money have been injected into the system to keep economies alive during the pandemic, and the velocity of this money is expected to increase as economies reopen. In addition, we have seen commodity prices rise rapidly and employers struggle to fill jobs which could lead to non-transitory wage inflation.
We have been moderately adding inflation-sensitive assets to the portfolio but appreciate that, unlike the current weather, the picture remains quite unclear.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 14th June 2021.
© 2021 Beaufort Investment. All rights reserved.