The World In A Week – Interim Update
We have had a series of data releases this week ranging from inflation, growth, industrial production, unemployment and retail sales. There was very little new news to be gleaned from the numbers; the consensus range was extremely wide, meaning there were no shocks to report.
The month certainly feels like a dead rubber, as the markets look towards the data releases in August, which will give us the numbers for the whole of the second quarter. Perhaps this will give us an indication of how effective the loosening in lockdown restrictions has been. It is expected that retails sales in the US will continue to grow, as the savings acquired in lockdown are treated like a windfall to consumers.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 16th July 2020.
The World In A Week - VAT's The Way Forward
Last week, the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak unveiled his latest plan to support the economic recovery. As the job-retention scheme begins to unwind, Sunak has pledged to protect the jobs of furloughed workers by offering a £1,000 bonus to companies who retain these workers on their books. He has also promised to fund the wages of new younger employees for the next six months. The combination of these measures taken will hopefully support the estimated 700,000 graduates and school leavers that are entering the uncertain job market this summer.
Aside from the job protection measures, Sunak has introduced methods of stimulating spending in the economy by proposing an “Eat out to help out” scheme which rewards people with a 50% discount for dining in restaurants and cafes. Furthermore, the cut to VAT in the hospitality and tourism sector is a measure aimed to boost the short-term consumption in the economy by taking advantage of the lower prices on offer. The stamp duty measures raise the threshold to £500,000 which will hopefully stimulate a resurgence in the housing market.
On the outset, the package of up to £30 billion appears significant in nature with policies clearly designed to reduce the rapid rise in unemployment. The deployment of this package remains devoted towards seeing out the interim and subsequently dealing with the financing of this additional expenditure at a later stage.
Meanwhile, cases of the coronavirus continue to increase with the World Health Organisation reporting a daily increase of 230,370 cases on Saturday and with the US reporting their highest daily increase to date. However, the recent spike in the number of US coronavirus cases seems detached from market sentiment as the S&P 500 continues to climb, returning +3.91% year to date in GBP terms.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 13th July 2020.
The World In A Week – Interim Update
Rather than the symbolic red briefcase, our Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, appeared to don a red outfit and played the part of Santa Claus in his summer statement yesterday. His £30 billion giveaway was firmly aimed at sustaining youth employment and helping low-income workers. We will give more details on his economic stimulus package in Monday’s ‘The World In A Week’.
The Great Firewall of China, which has extended its boundaries to encompass Hong Kong, is continuing to put pressure on the already stretched relationship between the US and China. The new law means China has control over Hong Kong’s internet, including censorship and potential arrests for managers of tech companies who refuse to hand over data on their users. This poses a dilemma for some of the largest US tech firms who may have to abandon their operations in Hong Kong.
Trump’s reprisal was confirmation that a ban on the video app ‘TikTok’ is being considered, which would be devastating to the youth in the US, but also gives rise to the fact that specific companies are now being targeted in this increasingly tense political environment. Media reports that the US is considering undermining the Hong Kong dollar’s peg to the US dollar, makes the US-Sino cold war that little bit chillier and adds more credence to the theory that Trump will be using his tough stance on China in his election campaign.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 9th July 2020.
The World In A Week - Getting Back to Business
Markets finished last week in an ebullient mode overall which saw MSCI ACWI rising +2.1% in Sterling terms. This was aided in particular by a strong rise in Chinese Equities which jumped +3.9% for the week as investors became more cheerful about a swift economic recovery from the Coronavirus pandemic. Investment grade Fixed Income was flat, while High Yield Bonds returned +0.3% and Global Investment Grade Credit continued to outperform Sterling IG Credit. The Pound Sterling also strengthened against the Euro and the Dollar.
Saturday, the 4th July was not only Independence Day in the United States, but also the day on which the inhabitants of the UK began to regain at least some of their liberty as the economy began to reopen. Attention now turns to the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, and his economic statement in Parliament on Wednesday. He is expected to outline the Government’s programme for restarting the economy following the lockdown. Among the measures that are allegedly being discussed, is the offering of a payment of £1,000 to companies for every trainee provided with a work experience placement. There is also the possible offering of a £500 voucher to all citizens to spend in designated parts of the economy that have been particularly badly hit, as well as a proposal to raise the threshold at which homebuyers start paying stamp duty to £500,000.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 6th July 2020.
The World In A Week – Interim Update
Should I stay or should I go (out)? The Clash here is the interminable quandary between stemming the spread of COVID-19 and resuscitating economies. Decisions have to be made without full clarity of the potential outcomes and are typically counter-productive to each other; what is good for the economy is not necessarily good for controlling COVID-19.
Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, has indicated that the central bank will be more explicit in its intentions, in order to help facilitate a better recovery. However, while the reopening of the US economy is underway, a full economic revival would require curbing COVID-19’s current trajectory. This warning was echoed by the World Health Organisation as COVID-19 cases passed 10 million globally. Over a quarter of those were from the US, which was particularly evident this week as California, Texas and Arizona all reported an increase in the number of cases. This has meant several states slowing down their plans for an easing of lockdown measures.
The UK seems to be following the US, with isolated spikes in particular areas requiring a reinstatement of localised lockdowns. The path towards normalisation will be volatile and until a vaccine is found, investors will have to become accustomed to a strategy that is two steps forward and one step back.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 2nd July 2020.
The World In A Week - Seasons of Change
Following on from last week’s opening of some non-essential businesses, it is likely that Boris Johnson will announce a relaxation of the 2-metre social distancing rule tomorrow. This should pave the way for a potential reopening of the hospitality sector from the 4th July.
Whilst the recommencement of the Premier League has been met with mixed reviews, the lack of atmosphere may be more palatable while enjoying the spectacle with a cold beverage of your choice, in the reasonably close proximity of your friends.
The attraction of socialising once again may not be enough to help the beleaguered sector, that is why Chancellor Rishi Sunak is contemplating a move to potentially reduce VAT for the hospitality and tourism sectors, which would include pubs, restaurants and hotels, from as early as July.
However, in order to balance the books, it is likely that the summer of stimulus may give way to an autumn that contains deferred tax increases and spending cuts in order to stabilise public debt.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 22nd June 2020.
The World In A Week - Interim Update
It appears to be more of the same for this mid-week update. The predictable cycle of forward guidance regarding more economic stimuli, in order to combat the fear of unemployment numbers, and the containment of COVID-19. The desired outcome being sufficient reassurance to consumers to help ignite the economic bounce back.
US sales data published earlier in the week was an early indication of the resilience of consumers, showing a positive surprise from the forced savings that have been accrued during lockdown. American consumers pushed May’s retail sales report to a record 17.7%, smashing through the expected rebound of 8.4%. This has seen over 60% of the loss accumulated through January to April recouped in May.
However, we must remember that the bounce was from a depressed seven-year low and the retail sales trend at an annual rate is still significantly in the red. Context is everything, especially during more volatile periods.
Monitoring the reaction of markets to the rising number of virus cases is critical, as straight-line extrapolation creates opportunities, especially when central banks and governments are willing to underwrite extreme volatility.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 18th June 2020.
The World In A Week - The Doors Are Opening
It has been 84 days since lockdown in the UK was announced in which we have seen a period of great change and an immediate shift to our lifestyles. We have seen just over a quarter of the UK‘s working population supported by the Government’s furlough scheme with its estimated cost currently sitting at £19.6bn. As non-essential businesses begin to re-open their doors today, we appear to be getting closer to a state of normality. Boris Johnson has suggested that the two-metre social distancing rule could be relaxed as the hospitality sector prepares to reopen from 4th July.
In the last week, market volatility has been very high as the markets have tried to price in a quick return to normality. However, UK GDP fell by a record 20.4% in April as lockdown has paralysed the economy and halted businesses from functioning. The markets were quick to react to this data release as the FTSE All-Share fell 3.82% on Thursday, its biggest daily drop since the market sell-off, back in March. In simple economic terms, consumption has been the biggest component of GDP to be affected, with primary spending restricted to the groceries & e-commerce sectors.
Equity markets are typically driven by company fundamentals, forward cash flow estimates and forecasted earnings. In the current market, there is low visibility in these metrics, and so valuations are currently distorted. Previous recessions have followed a V-shaped recovery however, the markets continue to disseminate new economic data and the expectation is that we are likely to see more of a W-shaped recovery. Volatility is expected to continue in the interim as the market is displaying bunny-market characteristics as share prices hop up and down.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 15th June 2020.
Accessing your pension: Annuity vs Flexi-Access Drawdown
In the past, the majority of people saved for retirement over their working life, gave up work on a set date and used their pension savings to purchase an Annuity. However, as retirement lifestyles have changed, so too have the options you’re faced with as you approach the milestone. If you’re nearing retirement, you may be wondering if an Annuity or Flexi-Access Drawdown is the right option for you.
Since 2015, retirees have had more choice in how they access a Defined Contribution pension. If you want your pension to deliver a regular income, there are two main options – an Annuity or Flexi-Access Drawdown – to weigh up. So, what are they?
Annuity: An Annuity is a product you purchase using your pension savings. In return for the lump sum, you’ll receive a regular income that is guaranteed for life. In some cases, this can be linked to inflation, helping to maintain your spending power throughout retirement. As the income is guaranteed, an Annuity provides a sense of financial security but doesn’t offer flexibility.
Flexi-Access Drawdown: With this option, your pension savings will usually remain invested and you’re able to take a flexible income, increasing, decreasing or pausing withdrawals as needed. Flexi-Access Drawdown provides the flexibility that many modern retirees want. However, as savings remain invested they can be exposed to short-term volatility and individuals have to take responsibility for ensuring savings last for the rest of their life.
There are pros and cons to both options, and there’s no solution that suits everyone when considering which option should be used. It’s essential to think about your situation and goals at retirement and beyond when deciding.
It’s worth noting, that pension holders can choose both an Annuity and Flexi-Access Drawdown when accessing their pension. For example, you may decide to purchase an Annuity to create a base income that covers essential outgoings, then using Flexi-Access Drawdown to supplement it when needed. It’s important to strike the right balance and other options could affect your decision too, such as the ability to take a 25% tax-free lump sum.
5 questions to ask before accessing your pension
- What reliable income will you have in retirement?
Having some guaranteed income in retirement can provide peace of mind and ensure essential outgoings are covered. But this doesn’t have to come from an Annuity. Other options may include the State Pension or a Defined Benefit pension.
Calculating your guaranteed income can help you decide if you need to build a reliable income stream or are in a position to invest your Defined Contribution pension savings throughout retirement. If you decide Flexi-Access Drawdown is an appropriate option for you, it’s a calculation that can also inform your investment risk profile.
- What lifestyle do you want in retirement?
When we think of retirement planning, it’s often pensions and savings that spring to mind. However, the lifestyle you hope to achieve is just as important. Do you hope to spend more time on hobbies, with grandchildren or exploring new destinations, for instance? Thinking about where your income will go, from the big-ticket items to the day-to-day costs, can help you understand what income level you need.
- Do you expect income needs to change throughout retirement?
This question should give you an idea of how your income will change throughout retirement. Traditionally, retirees see higher levels of spending during the first few years before outgoings settled, with spending rising in later years again if care or support was needed.
However, your retirement goals may mean your retirement outgoings don’t follow this route. If you decide to take a phased approach to retirement, gradually reducing working hours, you may find that a lower income from pensions is required initially. Considering income needs at different points of retirement can help you see where flexibility can be useful.
- Are you comfortable with investing?
Flexi-Access Drawdown has become a popular way for retirees to access their savings. There are benefits to the option but you should keep in mind that savings are invested. As a result, they will be exposed to some level of investment risk and may experience short-term volatility. Before choosing Flexi-Access Drawdown, it’s important to understand and be comfortable with the basics of investing.
Investment performance should also play a role in your withdrawal rate. During a period of downturn, it may be wise to reduce withdrawals to preserve long-term sustainability, for instance. This is an area financial advice can help with.
- Do you have other assets to use in retirement?
Whilst pensions are probably among the most important retirement asset you have, other assets can be used to create an income too. Reviewing these, from investments to property, and understanding if they could provide an income too can help you decide how to access your pension.
We know that retirement planning involves many decisions that can have a long-term impact. We’re here to offer you support throughout, including assessing your options when accessing a pension. If you have any questions, please get in touch.
Please note: A pension is a long-term investment. The fund value may fluctuate and can go down, which would have an impact on the level of pension benefits available. Your pension income could also be affected by the interest rates at the time you take your benefits.
The tax implications of pension withdrawals will be based on your individual circumstances, tax legislation and regulation, which are subject to change in the future.
The Quick Guide To Bonds
When it comes to investing, it’s probably stock markets and shares that come to mind. Yet the average investment portfolio uses various asset classes to deliver returns and manage risk. One important part of your portfolio may be bonds.
Bonds can also be known as gilts, coupons and yields, which, along with other financial jargon, can make it difficult to understand how they fit into your financial plan. This quick guide can help get you up to speed.
What is a bond?
In simple terms, a bond can be thought of like an IOU that can be traded in the financial market.
Bonds are issued by governments and corporations when they want to raise money. When you purchase a bond you effectively become the issuer of a loan, receiving payments for the loan in the future. There are typically two ways that a bond pays out:
- A lump sum when the bond reaches maturity
- Smaller payments over the term, this is often a fixed percentage of the final maturity payment
If you’re viewing a bond as a loan, the lump sum at maturity would be like receiving your initial investment back whilst the small payments are equivalent to interest incurred. Bonds can be a useful asset to invest in if you’re focused on creating an income rather than growth.
Unlike stocks, you don’t have any ownership rights when you purchase a bond. As a result, you won’t benefit if a company performs well and you’ll be somewhat shielded from short-term stock market volatility too. Whilst all investments carry some risk, bonds are usually classed as a lower-risk asset than traditional stocks and shares.
That being said, it is possible to lose money when investing in bonds. This may occur if the issuer defaults on payments or you sell a bond for less than you paid. You should consider investment time frames, goals and risk before you decide to purchase government or corporate bonds.
Buying and selling bonds
Individual investors can purchase bonds, usually through a broker, as can professional investors, such as pension funds, banks and insurance companies. Initially, government bonds are often sold at auctions to financial institutions with bonds then being resold on the markets.
If you buy a bond, you have two options: hold or trade.
If you choose to hold a bond, you simply collect the regular repayments and wait until it reaches maturity, when you’ll receive a lump sum.
However, there is also a secondary market for selling bonds to other investors. If this is your plan, the fluctuations in price are important to consider as well as the value the bonds offer other investors. If you intend to sell, it’s important to understand the maturity and duration of the bond, as well as understanding the demand in the secondary market.
Whilst we’ve mentioned above that bonds can shield you from some of the stock market volatility, that doesn’t mean bond prices don’t change. Numerous factors can affect the value of bonds, from the interest rate and other Government policies to the demand for bonds. These movements can affect the expected yield, which can end up negative meaning the repayments add up to less than what you paid.
How do bonds fit into your investment portfolio?
Bonds are just one of the assets that are used to create an investment portfolio that suits you.
If you’re investing for income, rather than growth, choosing bonds to make up a portion of your portfolio can deliver a relatively reliable income stream.
One of the key things to consider when investing is your risk profile. Typically, bonds are considered less risky and experience less volatility when compared to traditional stocks. As a result, they can be used effectively to help manage investment risk. The lower your risk profile, the more likely it is that your portfolio will include a higher portion of bonds. Of course, other assets can be used to adjust and manage your risk profile too and not all bonds have the same level of risk.
The most important factor when creating an investment portfolio is that it matches your risk profile and goals. If you’d like to chat to us about how bonds are used to balance your portfolio, please get in touch.
Please note: The value of your investment can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.